Search Results
Journal Article
Deja Vu? The Recent Rise in Credit Card Debt Delinquencies
An analysis examines how a recent rise in credit card debt delinquencies compares with a similar trend during the global financial crisis of 2007-09.
Working Paper
How does liquidity affect consumer payment choice?
We measure consumers? readiness to face emergency expenses. Based on data from a representative survey of US consumers, we find that financial readiness varies widely across consumers, with lowest-income, least-educated, unemployed, and black consumers most likely to have $0 saved for emergency expenses. For these consumers, even a temporary financial shock, either an unexpected negative income shock (such as a layoff or a short-term government shutdown) or an unexpected expenditure (such as a medical expense or a car repair), could have severe financial consequences. The literature likely ...
Working Paper
Credit card debt and consumer payment choice: what can we learn from credit bureau data?
We estimate a two-stage Heckman selection model of credit card adoption and use with a unique dataset that combines administrative data from the Equifax credit bureau and self-reported data from the Survey of Consumer Payment Choice, a representative survey of US consumers. Even though the survey data from the borrowers vary somewhat from the data provided by the lenders, the results based on the merged data are qualitatively similar to those based exclusively on self-reported surveys. This finding suggests that if administrative data are not available, it might be sufficient to use survey ...
Credit Card Deleveraging during the COVID-19 Pandemic
The patterns of debt creation and debt destruction during the pandemic are different from those during the Great Recession.
Journal Article
Consumer Debt Is High, but Consumers Seem to Have Room to Run
Real consumer debt is now higher than its prior peak during the global financial crisis, driven in part by increases in credit card debt. Although the share of credit card debt transitioning into delinquency has risen, it remains below levels seen during the global financial crisis. Moreover, debt-to-income measures remain historically low, suggesting that consumers in aggregate may have more room to run up debt before experiencing further financial stress.
Working Paper
Credit Card Debt Puzzle: Liquid Assets to Pay Bills
Using transaction data from a US consumer payments diary, we revisit the credit card debt puzzle—a scenario in which consumers revolve credit card debt while also keeping liquid assets as bank account deposits. This scenario is very common: 42 percent of consumers in our sample were borrower-savers in 2019 (those who carry $100 or more in credit card debt and $100 or more in liquid assets). We explain the puzzle by showing that consumers need their liquid assets to pay monthly bills and other necessary expenses, including mortgage or rent. More than 80 percent of bills by value were paid ...
Report
Why Has Consumer Spending Remained So Resilient? Evidence from Credit Card Data
Credit card data indicate that since 2022, spending by higher-income consumers has remained resilient and has been driving the growth in aggregate spending. By contrast, spending growth of low-income consumers has not been as strong.
Report
Personality Traits and Financial Outcomes
Surveys indicate that about 4.5 percent of US households do not have a bank account and about one-quarter do not own any credit cards. Among credit cardholders, revolving credit card debt (carrying unpaid balances) is common. Using data from the 2021 Survey and Diary of Consumer Payment Choice and the University of Southern California’s Understanding America Study, this paper looks at whether self-reported personality traits have a significant effect on these financial outcomes when the analysis considers consumers’ income, demographics, and financial literacy. Specifically, it studies ...
Working Paper
Credit Card Debt Puzzle: Liquid Assets to Pay Bills
Using transaction data from a US consumer payments diary, we revisit the credit card debt puzzle—a scenario in which consumers revolve credit card debt while also keeping liquid assets as bank account deposits. This scenario is very common: 42 percent of consumers in our sample were borrower-savers in 2019 (those who carry $100 or more in credit card debt and $100 or more in liquid assets). We explain the puzzle by showing that consumers need their liquid assets to pay monthly bills and other necessary expenses, including mortgage or rent. More than 80 percent of bills by value were paid ...
Newsletter
What Is the Best Strategy for Paying Off Credit Card Debt?
Most of us use credit cards, and many of us have credit card debt. Economists and personal finance gurus disagree on the best strategies for paying off that debt across multiple credit cards. Check out our February 2023 issue of Page One Economics®: Focus on Finance to see why.