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Journal Article
Productivity During and Since the Pandemic
Fernald, John G.; Li, Huiyu; Meisenbacher, Brigid C.; Yalcin, Aren S. (2024-11-25)
U.S. labor productivity initially surged in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the massive economic upheaval. As the economy recovered, the level of productivity retreated to its slow pre-pandemic trend. As of mid-2024, it remained close to but just above that trend. The surge and retreat in productivity follows the pre-pandemic cyclical relationship in which U.S. productivity rises temporarily in recessions. This example highlights the need to look through temporary cyclical effects when trying to infer longer-run trends.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 31 , Pages 6

Journal Article
“Great Resignations” Are Common During Fast Recoveries
Hobijn, Bart (2022-04-04)
The record percentage of workers who are quitting their jobs, known as the “Great Resignation,” is not a shift in worker attitudes in the wake of the pandemic. Evidence on which workers are quitting suggests that it reflects the strong rebound of the demand for younger and less-educated workers. Historical data on quits in manufacturing suggest that the current wave is not unusual. Waves of job quits have occurred during all fast recoveries in the postwar period.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 08 , Pages 06

Journal Article
Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve
Bauer, Michael D.; Mertens, Thomas M. (2022-05-09)
The slope of the Treasury yield curve is a popular recession predictor with an excellent track record. The two most common alternative measures of the slope typically move together but have diverged recently, making the resulting recession signals unclear. Economic arguments and empirical evidence, including its more accurate predictions, favor the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury securities. Recession probabilities for the next year derived from this spread so far remain modest.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 11 , Pages 05

Speech
What the Moment Demands
Daly, Mary C. (2023-11-17)
Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress, Frankfurt, Germany, November 17, 2023, 3:30 PM CET (local), 6:30 AM PST
Speech

Journal Article
Unemployment Insurance Withdrawal
Albert, Sarah; Lofton, Olivia; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Valletta, Robert G. (2022-04-11)
Unemployment insurance benefits were expanded substantially to help overcome the pandemic labor market shock in early 2020. However, improved labor market conditions in early 2021 prompted many states to withdraw from the enhanced unemployment benefits programs several months before the federal program was scheduled to end in early September. A comparison of states that ended enhanced benefits early with those that maintained them suggests that the withdrawal is associated with a small pickup in employer hiring, consistent with prior studies that found the unemployment benefit expansions had ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 09 , Pages 05

Journal Article
Assessing the Durability of COVID-Era Capacity Gains Among Community-Based Organizations: Lessons from the Emergency Rental Assistance Program
Kneebone, Elizabeth (2024-02-12)
To better understand the impact of the Emergency Rental Assistance Program’s conclusion on community-based organizations and on their scope and scale of work after ERAP, this brief draws on interviews conducted with practitioners involved with nearly two dozen ERA programs across the country. These interviews help shed light on how the dwindling and, in many cases, cessation of ERAP funds is affecting organizations’ capacity along multiple dimensions as they scale back, reorient, and move on post ERAP.
Community Development Research Brief , Volume 2024 , Issue 01 , Pages 21

Discussion Paper
Households Confront the End of Pandemic-Era Assistance Programs
Norris, Stephanie (2023-07-13)
The U.S. government, beginning in March 2020, took extraordinary measures in response to the emergence and spread of the novel coronavirus. Through policy changes and major spending bills, the federal government directed funds to help states, localities, and households manage the economic challenges caused by the pandemic. Two of the many measures that the government took to directly aid households were increasing the flexibility and benefits of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and pausing federal student loan payments. Now that enhanced SNAP benefits have ended and ...
Regional Matters

Journal Article
When Is Shelter Services Inflation Coming Down?
Jordà, Òscar; Yalcin, Aren S. (2024-09-03)
Shelter costs are one of the largest expenses for most households and an important component of overall inflation. It is therefore important to understand why shelter costs have remained stubbornly high. A key explanation is that, especially since the pandemic, demand for housing has been growing faster than new units have come into the market. Using the gap between the demand for and supply of housing along with other leading indicators of shelter prices can help assess whether shelter inflation will continue on a path toward historically normal levels.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 23

Journal Article
Do Banks Lend to Distressed Firms?
Sanchez, Juan M.; Paul, Pascal; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2023-11-27)
Concerns emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic over banks continuing to lend to unproductive businesses that were close to default. Recent research shows that lenders have incentives to offer relatively better terms to less-productive and more-indebted firms to recover their prior investments. U.S. loan-level data confirm the empirical relevance of such lending behavior. A rich model of firms and banks further emphasizes that this type of lending can also depress overall productivity by sustaining firms that should otherwise exit the economy.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 31 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Pandemic-Era Liquid Wealth Is Running Dry
Abdelrahman, Hamza; Oliveira, Luiz E.; Shapiro, Adam Hale (2024-08-12)
Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed significantly by income group. While middle- and lower-income households hold substantially less liquid wealth than implied by pre-pandemic projections, the level for higher-income households remains close to its pre-pandemic path. Over the same period, credit card delinquency rates initially dropped and, more recently, have steadily risen as pandemic-era liquid wealth was depleted, especially for ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 21 , Pages 6

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