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Working Paper
The TCJA and Domestic Corporate Tax Rates
We study changes in tax positions for U.S. C corporations following passage of the 2017 tax legislation commonly known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). While existing research has focused primarily on publicly traded companies, data limitations have prevented more holistic analyses of the corporate sector. Using a representative sample of U.S. corporate tax returns, we highlight how trends in effective tax rates (ETRs) and exposure to the legislation’s main provisions varied for public, private, multinational, domestic, and large versus small firms. We document several novel facts, ...
Working Paper
The Role of Transfer Prices in Profit-Shifting by U.S. Multinational Firms : Evidence from the 2004 Homeland Investment Act
Using unique transaction-level microdata, this paper documents profit-shifting behavior by U.S. multinational firms via the strategic transfer pricing of intra-firm trade. A simple model reveals how differences in tax rates, both the corporate tax rates across countries and the dividend repatriation tax rate over time, affect the worldwide profit-maximizing transfer-prices set by firms for intra-firm exports and imports. I test the predictions of the model in the context of the 2004 Homeland Investment Act (HIA), a one-time tax repatriation holiday which generated a discreet change in the ...
Transfer Pricing of Intangible Assets: Evidence from Patent Data
To reduce their tax exposure, multinationals may seek to shift profits to countries with lower tax rates. Do patents play a role in this strategy?
Working Paper
End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns
I show that the decline in interest rates and corporate tax rates over the past three decades accounts for the majority of the period’s exceptional stock market performance. Lower interest expenses and corporate tax rates mechanically explain over 40 percent of the real growth in corporate profits from 1989 to 2019. In addition, the decline in risk-free rates alone accounts for all of the expansion in price-to-earnings multiples. I argue, however, that the boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly ...
Discussion Paper
Tax Reform and U.S. Effective Profit Taxes: From Low to Lower
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) reduced the federal corporate profit tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. Adding in state profit taxes, the overall U.S. tax rate went from 39 percent, one of the highest rates in the world, to 26 percent, about the average rate abroad. The implications of the new law for U.S. competitiveness depend on how these statutory tax rates compare with the actual rates faced by U.S. and foreign companies. To address this question, this post presents new evidence on tax payments as a share of profits, as well as analytical measures of tax impacts on profitability. ...
Working Paper
End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns
I show that the decline in interest rates and corporate tax rates over the past three decades accounts for the majority of the period’s exceptional stock market performance. Lower interest expenses and corporate tax rates mechanically explain over 40 percent of the real growth in corporate profits from 1989 to 2019. In addition, the decline in risk-free rates alone accounts for all of the expansion in price-to-earnings multiples. I argue, however, that the boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly ...