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Journal Article
Coronavirus and the Risk of Deflation
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Christensen, Jens H. E.; Zhu, Simon (2020-05-11)
The pandemic caused by COVID-19 represents an unprecedented negative shock to the global economy that is likely to severely depress economic activity in the near term. Could the crisis also put substantial downward pressure on price inflation? One way to assess the potential risk to the inflation outlook is by analyzing prices of standard and inflation-indexed government bonds. The probability of declining price levels—or deflation—among four major countries within the next year indicates that the perceived risk remains muted, despite the recent economic turmoil.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 11 , Pages 5

COVID-19 and the Importance of Testing
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. (2020-03-27)
Using only the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases does not help us understand the scope of the pandemic.
On the Economy

COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts
Ebsim, Mahdi; Gascon, Charles S. (2020-04-30)
With schools closed due to COVID-19, many full-time workers may drop out of the labor force to take care of their children. Which groups of workers might be most affected?
On the Economy

COVID-19 and Financial Distress: Vulnerability to Infection and Death
Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mather, Ryan; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2020-04-02)
Although COVID-19 initially spread faster in areas with low financial distress, evidence suggests that infections may spread most rapidly in highly financially distressed areas moving forward.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
The Coronavirus Shock Looks More like a Natural Disaster than a Cyclical Downturn
Deitz, Richard; Bram, Jason (2020-04-10)
It’s tempting to compare the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic to prior business cycle downturns, particularly the Great Recession. However, such comparisons may not be particularly apt—as evidenced by the unprecedented surge in initial jobless claims over the past three weeks. Recessions typically develop gradually over time, reflecting underlying economic and financial conditions, whereas the current economic situation developed suddenly as a consequence of a fast-moving global pandemic. A more appropriate comparison would be to a regional economy suffering the effects of a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200410a

COVID-19 and Unauthorized Immigration at the Southwest Border
Grittayaphong, Praew; Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu (2021-01-14)
A drop in U.S. enforcement encounters in the spring suggested the pandemic temporarily slowed unauthorized entry attempts, but such encounters have risen in recent months.
On the Economy

Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period
Bullard, James B. (2020-03-23)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommends declaring a “National Pandemic Adjustment Period” and discusses three broad goals of macroeconomic policy during this period.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Seitelman, Lily; Glick, Reuven; Lansing, Kevin J.; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas (2020-06-30)
We fit a simple epidemiology model to daily data on the number of currently-infected cases of COVID-19 in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from late to early, of a COVID-19 epidemic cycle. We solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number Rt each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each country. Using the model-implied time series of Rt, we construct a smoothed version of the in-sample trajectory which is used to project the future evolution of Rt and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-24

The Household Shift from Paid Work to Home Production
Leukhina, Oksana; Yu, Zhixiu (2021-01-18)
When U.S. workers lose their jobs or have reduced work hours, how does this affect time spent on activities like cooking and child care?
On the Economy

Predicting the Unemployment Rate in a Time of Coronavirus
Faberman, R. Jason (2020-04-07)
Economists forecast the unemployment rate all the time. Usually, though, they use data over the previous months and quarters to forecast the unemployment rate out several years. Since the relationships between the unemployment rate and things like GDP growth and employment are mostly stable over time, and since month-to-month movements in the unemployment rate are usually small, these forecasts usually work well.
Midwest Economy Blog

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