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Working Paper
The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies
Hur, Sewon (2020-09-02)
This paper develops a quantitative life cycle model in which economic decisions impact the spread of COVID-19 and, conversely, the virus affects economic decisions. The calibrated model is used to measure the welfare costs of the pandemic across the age, income and wealth distribution and to study the effectiveness of various mitigation policies. In the absence of mitigation, young workers engage in too much economic activity relative to the social optimum, leading to higher rates of infection and death in the aggregate. The paper considers a subsidy-and-tax policy that imposes a tax on ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 400

Report
How Deadly is COVID-19? Understanding the Difficulties with Estimation of its Fatality Rate
Atkeson, Andrew (2020-03-31)
To understand how best to combat COVID-19, we must understand how deadly is the disease. There is a substantial debate in the epidemiological literature as to whether the fatality rate is 1% or 0.1% or somewhere in between. In this note, I use an SIR model to examine why it is difficult to estimate the fatality rate from the disease and how long we might have to wait to resolve this question absent a large-scale randomized testing program. I focus on uncertainty over the joint distribution of the fatality rate and the initial number of active cases at the start of the epidemic around January ...
Staff Report , Paper 598

How Should the Government Spend the Fiscal Budget during the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Mercan, Yusuf; Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt; Karahan, Fatih (2020-08-20)
A mix of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and payroll subsidies to employers may be more effective in speeding up the recovery than implementing just one of those policies.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
Businesses in the Tri-State Region Struggling to Weather the Coronavirus Outbreak
Abel, Jaison R.; Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard (2020-03-30)
As a result of the coronavirus outbreak, New York State, New Jersey, and Connecticut have closed nonessential businesses and schools and asked residents to stay home in an effort to slow the spread of the virus. These actions are unprecedented, and the economic impacts are likely to be temporary but severe, and difficult to track and measure. With conditions changing so rapidly, timely data on the economic impacts of the outbreak and resultant policies on businesses and people are both scarce and important. In this post, we provide some very recent information on the economic effects of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200330a

The Real State of Family Wealth: Will COVID-19 Worsen Racial, Educational and Generational Gaps in the U.S.?
Kent, Ana Hernández; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Emmons, William R. (2020-11-19)
A new quarterly assessment tracks the pandemic’s impact on wealth trends by demographic groups.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Disparities and Mitigation Behavior during COVID-19
Wozniak, Abigail (2020-05-13)
This paper uses a unique large-scale survey administered in April 2020 to assess disparities on several dimensions of wellbeing under rising COVID-19 infections and mitigation restrictions in the US. The survey includes three modules designed to assess different dimensions of well-being in parallel: physical health, mental and social health, and economic and financial security. The survey is unique among early COVID-19 data efforts in that provides insight on diverse dimensions of wellbeing and for subnational geographies. I find dramatic declines in wellbeing from pre-COVID baseline measures ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 32

Discussion Paper
Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Pilossoph, Laura; Mongey, Simon (2020-05-29)
In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, nearly all U.S. states imposed social distancing policies to combat the spread of illness. To the extent that work can be done from home, some workers moved their offices to their abodes. Others, however, are unable to continue working as their usual tasks require a specific location or environment, or involve close proximity to others. Which types of jobs cannot be done from home and which types of jobs require close personal proximity to others? What share of overall U.S. employment falls in these categories? And, given that these jobs will be the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200529b

A Growing Trade Deficit? Medical Goods Imports Plays a Role
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Leibovici, Fernando (2020-11-10)
Typically, the U.S. trade deficit narrows during a recession. However, the deficit actually widened by about 20% from January to June.
On the Economy

Which Families Are Most Vulnerable to an Income Shock? A Look at Race and Ethnicity
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Boshara, Ray (2020-12-08)
While liquid assets, education and other factors are associated with how economically resilient families may be during a crisis, race and ethnicity are also related.
On the Economy

Housing Distress in the Time of COVID-19
Ricketts, Lowell R. (2020-08-03)
As of late July, 12.5% of Americans were experiencing housing distress. Which groups are experiencing the most housing distress?
On the Economy

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