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Working Paper
Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World
Belfiori, Elisa; Carroll, Daniel R.; Hur, Sewon (2024-07-16)
We study climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households, two types of goods (clean and dirty), and a climate externality from the dirty good. Using household expenditure and emissions data, we document that low-income households have higher emissions per dollar spent than high-income households, making a carbon tax regressive. We build a model that captures this fact and study climate policies that are neutral with respect to the income distribution. A central feature of these policies is that resource transfers across consumers are ruled out. We show that the constrained optimal ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 427

Briefing
Does Redistribution Increase Output?
Athreya, Kartik B.; Owens, Andrew; Romero, Jessica Sackett; Schwartzman, Felipe (2017-01)
According to conventional wisdom, wealth redistribution boosts output by increasing aggregate consumption. However, while redistributive policies can have a short-run stimulative effect on consumption, their effect on output depends, potentially quite importantly, on the nature of household labor supply.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue January

Working Paper
Forecasting GDP Growth with NIPA Aggregates
Knotek, Edward S.; Garciga, Christian (2017-05-19)
Beyond GDP, which is measured using expenditure data, the U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) provide an income-based measure of the economy (gross domestic income, or GDI), a measure that averages GDP and GDI, and various aggregates that include combinations of GDP components. This paper compiles real-time data on a variety of NIPA aggregates and uses these in simple time-series models to construct out-of-sample forecasts for GDP growth. Over short forecast horizons, NIPA aggregates?particularly consumption and GDP less inventories and trade?together with these simple ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1708

Working Paper
Fiscal Stimulus with Learning-By-Doing
dAlessandro, Antonello; Fella, Giulio; Melosi, Leonardo (2018-05-01)
Using a Bayesian SVAR analysis, we document that an increase in government purchases raises private consumption, the real wage and total factor productivity (TFP) while reducing inflation. Each of these facts is hard to reconcile with both neoclassical and New-Keynesian models. We extend a standard New-Keynesian model to allow for skill accumulation through past work experience, following Chang, Gomes and Schorfheide (2002). An increase in government spending increases hours and induces skill accumulation and higher measured TFP and real wages in subsequent periods. Future marginal costs fall ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2018-9

Discussion Paper
W(h)ither U.S. Crude Oil Production?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2020-05-04)
People across the world have cut back sharply on travel due to the Covid-19 pandemic, working from home and cancelling vacations and other nonessential travel. Industrial activity is also off sharply. These forces are translating into an unprecedented collapse in global oil demand. The nature of the decline means that demand is unlikely to respond to the steep drop in oil prices, so supply will have to fall in tandem. The rapid increase in U.S. oil production of recent years was already looking difficult to sustain before the pandemic, as evidenced by the limited profitability of the sector. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200504

Working Paper
Consumption, credit, and the missing young
Gorbachev, Olga; Cooper, Daniel H.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose (2019-10-01)
There are more young adults today with either no credit history or insufficient credit history to be scored by one of the major credit bureaus than there were before the Great Recession ? a reality that is likely an unintended outcome of the CARD Act of 2009. In regressions that include a rich set of controls, this paper shows that measures of young adults missing from credit bureau data act as a drag on state-level consumption growth. This finding seems to be driven by young individuals from more disadvantaged backgrounds having less access to credit since the act went into effect.
Working Papers , Paper 19-10

Journal Article
Negative Sentiment toward Spending and Declining Real Incomes May Meaningfully Lower Consumption
Cakir Melek, Nida; Pollard, Emily (2022-11-04)
Despite a contraction in real GDP in the first half of 2022, consumer spending has remained resilient. We examine a set of factors that have historically affected consumption growth and find that excess savings have boosted consumer spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as excess savings decline and economic relationships normalize, negative sentiment toward spending and declining real incomes may meaningfully lower consumption.
Economic Bulletin , Issue November 4, 2022 , Pages 4

Working Paper
More Than Shelter: The Eﬀects of Rental Eviction Moratoria on Household Well-Being
An, Xudong; Gabriel, Stuart A.; Tzur-Ilan, Nitzan (2022-04-05)
We investigate the impact of 2020 COVID-19 rental eviction moratoria on household well-being. Analysis of new panel data indicates that eviction moratoria reduced evictions filings and resulted in redirection of scarce household ﬁnancial resources to immediate consumption needs, notably including food and grocery spending. We also ﬁnd that eviction moratoria reduced household food insecurity and mental stress, with larger effects evidenced among African American households. Findings suggest broad salutary effects of eviction moratoria during a period of widespread virus and economic ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-10

Working Paper
High-Frequency Spending Responses to Government Transfer Payments
Cooper, Daniel H.; Olivei, Giovanni P. (2021-11-01)
This paper evaluates the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of the 2020 fiscal stimulus payments using high-frequency, transaction-level data for a sample of low-income cardholders, many of whom are unbanked. Consumers’ MPC out of non-stimulus income and their MPC out of tax refunds are estimated simultaneously. Spending responds less on impact to the stimulus payments than to non-stimulus income (15 cents versus 20 cents per dollar of income), but stimulus-payment spending quickly catches up and is noticeably higher than non-stimulus-income spending on a cumulative basis after 16 ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-10

Strength in consumer spending does not necessarily imply low probability of recession
Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2024-01-02)
Consumption was not a main driver of GDP declines in previous recessions, and a recession is not necessarily preceded by declines in consumer spending.
Dallas Fed Economics

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