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Speech
Perspectives on the U.S. Economic Outlook
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-12-17)
My view is that the economy is currently in a good place. Labor markets are strong, inflation is moving to target, and growth is likely to be somewhat above potential. Particularly given the recent cuts in the federal funds rate, and the fact that monetary actions take effect with some lag, I would say that this is a good time to patiently assess the economy. In the short run, I do not see a need for additional policy easing unless there is a material change to the forecast.
Speech

Tracking the Economic Impact of the Pandemic Using High-Frequency Data
Gascon, Charles S.; Schmitz, Amelia (2020-10-15)
High-frequency data can provide a quicker snapshot of economic conditions than data that take weeks or months to become available.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
Discretionary Services Spending Has Finally Made It Back (to 2007)
McCarthy, Jonathan (2017-10-16)
The current economic expansion is now the third-longest expansion in U.S. history (based on National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] dating of U.S. business cycles). Even so, average growth in this expansion—a 2.1 percent annual rate—has been extraordinarily weak. In this post, I return to previous analysis on a specific portion of consumer spending—household discretionary services expenditures—that has displayed unusual weakness in the current expansion (see this post for the definition of discretionary versus nondiscretionary services expenditures, and these posts from 2012 and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20171016

Working Paper
Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier
Karabarbounis, Marios; Dupor, Bill; Mehkari, M. Saif; Kudlyak, Marianna (2018-02-20)
We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in Nielsen and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases consumer spending by $0.18. We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets. Our model successfully generates the ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-4

Discussion Paper
A New Dataset for Consumer Spending in the New York Fed EHIs
Pierce, Beckett; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Pham, Thu (2026-02-03)
We are enhancing our set of Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs) by adding a set of metrics on consumer spending with data presented by income, education, race and ethnicity, age, and urban status. The data will help track the evolution of aggregate behavior by analyzing the spending of specific groups in a more timely manner than is possible using public surveys.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20260203a

Speech
Important choices for the Federal Reserve in the years ahead: remarks at Lehman College, Bronx, New York
Dudley, William (2018-04-18)
Remarks at Lehman College, Bronx, New York.
Speech

Discussion Paper
Spending Down Pandemic Savings Is an “Only-in-the-U.S.” Phenomenon
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2023-10-11)
Household saving soared in the United States and other high-income economies during the pandemic, as consumers cut back on spending while government policies supported incomes. More recently, saving behavior has diverged, with the U.S. saving rate dropping below its pre-pandemic average while saving rates elsewhere have remained above their pre-pandemic averages. As a result, U.S. consumers have been spending down the “excess savings” built up during the pandemic while the excess savings abroad remain untapped. This divergent behavior helps explain why U.S. GDP has returned to its ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231011

How Will COVID-19 Affect the Spending of Financially Distressed Households?
Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mather, Ryan; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2020-04-23)
Consumer spending will drop substantially due to COVID-19, and the declines will hit hardest in households already in financial distress.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
How Much Have Consumers Spent on Imports during the Pandemic?
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2021-10-22)
The return of U.S. real GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the second quarter of this year was driven by consumer spending on goods. Such spending was well above its pre-pandemic path, while spending on services was well below. Despite the surge in goods spending, domestic manufacturing has increased only modestly, leaving most of the increase in demand being filled by imports. While higher imports have been a drag on growth, the size of this drag has been moderated by the value created by the domestic transportation, wholesale, and retail sectors in selling these goods. Going forward, a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211022

Newsletter
Consumer Spending and the COVID-19 Pandemic
Mendez-Carbajo, Diego (2021-01-04)
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic changed consumer spending habits. The January 2021 issue of Page One Economics reviews how people substituted meals purchased at restaurants with meals cooked at home. Also, people traveled less and the demand for hotel services decreased. As a result, both employment and prices declined in the leisure and hospitality industry.
Page One Economics Newsletter

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