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Working Paper
Global Transportation Decarbonization
A number of policy proposals call for replacing fossil fuels in the name of decarbonization, but these fuels will be difficult to replace due to their as-yet unrivaled bundle of attributes: abundance, ubiquity, energy density, transportability and cost. There is a growing commitment to electrification as the dominant decarbonization pathway for transportation. While deep electrification is promising for road vehicles in wealthy countries, it will face steep obstacles. In other sectors and in the developing world, it’s not even in pole position. Global transportation decarbonization will ...
Discussion Paper
Is the Green Transition Inflationary?
Are policies aimed at fighting climate change inflationary? In a new staff report we use a simple model to argue that this does not have to be the case. The model suggests that climate policies do not force a central bank to tolerate higher inflation but may generate a trade-off between inflation and employment objectives. The presence and size of this trade-off depends on how flexible prices are in the “dirty” and “green” sectors relative to the rest of the economy, and on whether climate policies consist of taxes or subsidies.
Journal Article
Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall
Climate change—including higher temperatures and more extreme weather—is already causing economic damage and is projected to have further long-lasting effects. To properly assess the potential future economic losses from climate change, they must be discounted to produce comparable values in today’s dollars. The discount rates required for this assessment are influenced by the long-run equilibrium real interest rate, which has declined notably since the 1990s. Accounting for a persistently lower real rate increases the present discounted future costs of climate change, which is relevant ...
Working Paper
The Canary in the Coal Decline: Appalachian Household Finance and the Transition from Fossil Fuels
The energy transition away from fossil fuels presents significant transition risks for communities historically built around the fossil fuel industry. This paper uses the decline in the Appalachian coal industry between 2011 and 2018 to understand how individuals are harmed by a reduction in local fossil fuel extraction activity. We use individual-level credit data and exogenous variation in coal demand from the electricity sector to identify how the coal mining industry’s decline affected the finances of Appalachian households. We find that the decline in demand for coal caused broad-based ...
Working Paper
Climate Policy Transition Risk and the Macroeconomy
Uncertainty surrounding if the U.S. will implement a federal climate policy introduces risk into the decision to invest in long-lived capital assets, particularly those designed to use, or to replace fossil fuel. We develop a dynamic, general equilibrium model to quantify the macroeconomic impacts of this climate policy transition risk. The model incorporates beliefs over the likelihood that the government adopts a climate policy causing the economy to dynamically transition to a lower carbon steady state. We find that climate policy transition risk decreases carbon emissions today by causing ...