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Banks versus Hurricanes: A Case Study of Puerto Rico after Hurricanes Irma and Maria
Anagnostakos, Peter; Bram, Jason; Chan, Benjamin; Fischl-Lanzoni, Natalia; Latif, Hasan; Mahoney, James M.; Morgan, Donald P.; Morgan, Ladd; Suarez, Ivelisse (2023-11-01)
We study Puerto Rico’s experience after the severe hurricane season of 2017 to better understand how extreme weather disasters affect bank stability and their ability to lend. Despite the devastation wrought by two category 5 hurricanes in a single month, we find relatively modest and transitory impacts on bank performance with no evident decline in lending capacity. We discuss various mitigants that help limit bank exposure to extreme weather and whether these mitigants may be vulnerable given the potential for more severe and more impactful climate events.
Staff Reports , Paper 1078

Working Paper
A Macro Study of the Unequal Effects of Climate Change
Fried, Stephie (2024-05-24)
This paper develops a macro heterogeneous-agent model to quantify the distributional impacts of higher temperatures in the US. Households adapt to temperature by using energy and equipment for heating and cooling. A key insight is that temperature acts as a transfer from nature, augmenting household income by the value of heating or cooling provided by nature. The welfare effects of climate change vary substantially with income, increasing welfare inequality in the colder parts of the US. This heterogeneity results from the effects of climate change on transfers from nature and on ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-18

Speech
The Basel Committee’s Initiatives on Climate-Related Financial Risks
Stiroh, Kevin J. (2020-10-14)
Remarks on the panel "New regulatory and policy landscape for sustainable finance," 2020 IIF Annual Membership Meeting (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Journal Article
Research Spotlight: Adapting Sovereign Debt to Climate Change
Ramachandran, David (2023-04)
As stronger hurricanes become more common due to climate change, understanding what factors drive recovery is increasingly important. How quickly a country recovers is influenced by its ability to attract foreign capital — making recovery challenging for emerging economies, as investors are more reluctant to invest in countries that are more likely to default on loans. The challenge for these countries to secure capital suggests an area for financial instruments to be adapted to better suit their needs. To gain a clearer understanding of the interplay between climate-related disasters and ...
Econ Focus , Volume 23 , Issue 2Q , Pages 8

Working Paper
Weathering the Storm: Supply Chains and Climate Risk
Morales, Nicolas; Khanna, Gaurav; Castro-Vincenzi, Juanma; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya (2024-04)
We characterize how firms structure supply chains under climate risk. Using new data on the universe of firm-to-firm transactions from an Indian state, we show that firms diversify sourcing locations, and suppliers exposed to climate risk charge lower prices. Our event-study analysis finds that firms with suppliers in flood-affected districts experience a decline in inputs lasting two months, followed by a return to original suppliers. We develop a general equilibrium model of firm input sourcing under climate risk. Firms diversify identical inputs from suppliers across space, trading off the ...
Working Paper , Paper 24-03

Discussion Paper
Climate Change and Consumer Finance: A Very Brief Literature Review
Canals-Cerda, Jose J.; Roman, Raluca (2021-10-06)
Extant research shows that climate change can impose significant costs on consumers’ wealth and finances. Both sea-level rise and flooding from hurricane events led to high price declines and thus wealth loss for homes in coastal areas or in disaster-struck areas, with effects lingering for a number of years in some cases. In terms of consumer finance, while the average consumer is not always significantly negatively affected by a disaster, the vulnerable groups (those with low credit scores and who are low income) can be severely affected, experiencing higher rates of delinquencies and ...
Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers , Paper 21-04

Journal Article
Climate Change and the Economy
Wells, Matthew (2022-01)
Richmond Fed senior economist Toan Phan has spent the past decade exploring the economics of climate change. His research in this area began as he was finishing graduate school in 2012, when he was struck by the potential economic implications of climate-related disasters like flooding and hurricanes. So, along with colleagues Riccardo Colacito of the University of North Carolina and Bridget Hoffmann of the Inter-American Development Bank, he began a project to understand the relationship between increasing temperatures and economic growth. The resulting article, "Temperature and Growth: A ...
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 12

Working Paper
Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Raissi, Mehdi; Yang, Jui-Chung; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Kahn, Matthew E.; Engelhardt, Bryan (2019-07-01)
We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables?defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 365

Journal Article
Impact of U.S. Labor Productivity Losses from Extreme Heat
Fried, Stephie; Casey, Gregory; Gibson, Matthew (2024-05-28)
Extreme heat decreases labor productivity in sectors like construction, where much work occurs outdoors. Because construction is an important component of investment, lost productivity today will slow how much capital is built up for future use and thus can have long-lasting impacts on overall economic outcomes. Combining estimates of lost labor productivity due to extreme heat with a model of economic growth suggests that, by the year 2200, extreme heat will reduce the U.S. capital stock by 5.4% and annual consumption by 1.8%.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024-14 , Issue 6

Discussion Paper
Potential Flood Map Inaccuracies in the Fed’s Second District
Blickle, Kristian S.; Engelman, Katherine; Linnemann, Theo; Santos, João A. C. (2023-11-10)
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) flood maps, which designate areas at risk of flooding, are updated periodically through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and community efforts. Even so, many maps are several years old. As the previous two posts in the Extreme Weather series show, climate-related risks vary geographically. It is therefore important to produce accurate maps of such risks, like flooding. In this post we use detailed data on the flood risk faced by individual dwellings as well as digitized FEMA flood maps to tease out the degree to which flood maps in the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231110

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