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Speech
Emerging Issues for Risk Managers
Stiroh, Kevin J. (2019-11-07)
Introductory Remarks at the GARP Global Risk Forum, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 336

Working Paper
Snow Belt to Sun Belt Migration: End of an Era?
Leduc, Sylvain; Wilson, Daniel J. (2024-07-15)
Internal migration has been cited as a key channel by which societies will adapt to climate change. We show in this paper that this process has already been happening in the United States. Over the course of the past 50 years, the tendency of Americans to move from the coldest places (“snow belt”), which have become warmer, to the hottest places (“sun belt”), which have become hotter, has steadily declined. In the latest full decade, 2010-2020, both county population growth and county net migration rates were essentially uncorrelated with the historical means of either extreme heat ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024

Discussion Paper
Flood Risk Outside Flood Zones — A Look at Mortgage Lending in Risky Areas
Blickle, Kristian S.; Perry, Evan; Santos, João A. C. (2024-09-25)
In support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) creates flood maps that indicate areas with high flood risk, where mortgage applicants must buy flood insurance. The effects of flood insurance mandates were discussed in detail in a prior blog series. In 2021 alone, more than $200 billion worth of mortgages were originated in areas covered by a flood map. However, these maps are discrete, whereas the underlying flood risk may be continuous, and they are sometimes outdated. As a result, official flood maps may not fully capture the true ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240925

Discussion Paper
Climate Change and Financial Stability: The Weather Channel
Blickle, Kristian S.; Morgan, Donald P. (2022-04-04)
Climate change could affect banks and the financial systems they anchor through various channels: increasingly extreme weather is one (Financial Stability Board, Basel Committee on Bank Supervision). In our recent staff report, we size up this channel by studying how U.S. banks, large and small, fared against disasters past. We find even the most destructive disasters had insignificant or small effects on bank stability and small and positive effects on bank income. We conjecture that recovery lending after disasters helps stabilize larger banks while smaller, local banks’ knowledge of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220404

Journal Article
Rising Wildfire Risk for the 12th District Economy
Oliveira, Luiz E.; Aylward, James (2020-07-13)
The growing risk from natural disasters is a key economic effect of climate change. Severe wildfires are a leading example, and they are particularly important for the western states that make up the 12th Federal Reserve District. Analyzing data on wildfire hazard and economic activity confirms that these states are substantially more exposed to wildfire risk than the rest of the country. This gap in regional wildfire risk is likely to grow over time as climate change continues.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 19 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Climate Change and Financial Policy: A Literature Review
Dennis, Benjamin (2022-07-29)
This article reviews the rapidly proliferating economic literature on climate change and financial policy. We find: (1) enduring challenges in estimating the statistical properties of a changed climate; (2) emerging evidence of financial markets pricing in climate-related risks; and (3) a range of significant institutional distortions preventing such pricing from being complete. Finally, we argue that geographic regions may be an especially fruitful unit of analysis for understanding the financial impact of climate change.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-048

Journal Article
COVID-19 and CO2
Hale, Galina; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-07-06)
One potential side effect from the rapid decline of global economic activity since the worldwide pandemic is a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Historically, CO2 emissions rise and fall in tandem with economic activity in the short run. Since the industries most affected by the downturn also produce the most CO2, emissions could drop more than output this time around. However, without substantial and sustained changes in energy sources and efficiency, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere—the relevant factor causing climate change—will continue on its upward trajectory.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 18 , Pages 06

Discussion Paper
Transition Risks in the Fed’s Second District and the Nation
Blickle, Kristian S.; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2023-11-09)
Climate change may pose two types of risk to the economy—from policies and consumer preferences as the energy system transitions to a lower dependence on carbon (in other words, transition risks) or from damages stemming from the direct impacts of climate change (physical risks). In this post, we follow up on our previous post that studied the exposure of the Federal Reserve’s Second District to physical risks by considering how transition risks affect different parts of the District and how they differentially affect the District relative to the nation. We find that, relative to other ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231109

Working Paper
Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World
Hur, Sewon; Carroll, Daniel R.; Belfiori, Elisa (2026-02-02)
We characterize optimal climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households and non-homothetic preferences. We focus on constrained efficiency, where the planner is restricted from transferring resources across households. We derive three results. First, the constrained-optimal carbon tax is heterogeneous and progressive. Second, if restricted to a uniform tax, the optimal rate is lower than the standard Pigouvian level due to inequality. Third, this allocation can be decentralized using only uniform instruments—a carbon tax, a clean subsidy and a lump-sum transfer. In a quantitative ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 427

Working Paper
Natural Disasters, Climate Change, and Sovereign Risk
Mallucci, Enrico (2020-07-08)
I investigate how natural disaster can exacerbate fiscal vulnerabilities and trigger sovereign defaults. I extend a standard sovereign default model to include disaster risk and calibrate it to a sample of seven Caribbean countries that are frequently hit by hurricanes. I find that hurricane risk reduces government's ability to issue debt and that climate change may further restrict market access. Next, I show that "disaster clauses", that provide debt-servicing relief, improve government ability to borrow and mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on government's borrowing conditions.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1291

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