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Discussion Paper
Moving Out of a Flood Zone? That May Be Risky!
Blickle, Kristian S.; Engelman, Katherine; Linnemann, Theo; Santos, João A. C. (2023-04-20)
An often-overlooked aspect of flood-plain mapping is the fact that these maps designate stark boundaries, with households falling either inside or outside of areas designated as “flood zones.” Households inside flood zones must insure themselves against the possibility of disasters. However, costly insurance may have pushed lower-income households out of areas officially designated a flood risk and into physically adjacent areas. While not designated an official flood risk, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and disaster data shows that these areas are still at considerable risk ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230420b

Working Paper
Charting the Course: How Does Information about Sea Level Rise Affect the Willingness to Migrate?
Bakkensen, Laura; Nquyen, Quynh; Phan, Toan; Shuler, Paul (2023-09-14)
An important yet less studied factor in determining the extent of adaptation to climate change is information: are people adequately informed about their vulnerability to future climate-related risks, and does their willingness to adapt depend on this knowledge? Focusing on how communication about projected sea level rise (SLR) affects the willingness to migrate, we implemented a large randomized control survey experiment with a nationally representative sample of more than 7,000 respondents across all provinces in Vietnam. We randomly assign respondents to different information treatments. ...
Working Paper , Paper 23-09

Journal Article
Freshwater Scarcity Risk Rises in the U.S. and Eighth District
Jenkins, Suzanne (2021-07-02)
Although fresh water was once considered abundant, growing scarcity issues are putting pressure on parts of the U.S.—including in the Fed’s Eighth District.
The Regional Economist

Working Paper
Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World
Belfiori, Elisa; Carroll, Daniel R.; Hur, Sewon (2024-07-16)
We study climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households, two types of goods (clean and dirty), and a climate externality from the dirty good. Using household expenditure and emissions data, we document that low-income households have higher emissions per dollar spent than high-income households, making a carbon tax regressive. We build a model that captures this fact and study climate policies that are neutral with respect to the income distribution. A central feature of these policies is that resource transfers across consumers are ruled out. We show that the constrained optimal ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 427

Discussion Paper
The Adverse Effect of “Mandatory” Flood Insurance on Access to Credit
Blickle, Kristian S.; Engelman, Katherine; Linnemann, Theo; Santos, João A. C. (2022-05-23)
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was designed to reduce household and lender flood-risk exposure and encourage lending. In this post, which is based on our related study, we show that in certain situations the program actually limits access to credit, particularly for low-income borrowers—an unintended consequence of this well-intentioned program.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220523

Journal Article
Impact of U.S. Labor Productivity Losses from Extreme Heat
Fried, Stephie; Casey, Gregory; Gibson, Matthew (2024-05-28)
Extreme heat decreases labor productivity in sectors like construction, where much work occurs outdoors. Because construction is an important component of investment, lost productivity today will slow how much capital is built up for future use and thus can have long-lasting impacts on overall economic outcomes. Combining estimates of lost labor productivity due to extreme heat with a model of economic growth suggests that, by the year 2200, extreme heat will reduce the U.S. capital stock by 5.4% and annual consumption by 1.8%.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 14

Journal Article
The Bell Curve of Global CO2 Emission Intensity
Arnaut-Hull, Zoë; Jordà, Òscar; Nechio, Fernanda (2023-10-16)
Countries’ commitments to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can have important implications for their economies. Data since the 1800s reveal that the amount of CO2 emissions generated for a given level of output follows a bell-shaped curve. Pairing this with projections of future economic growth can help in predicting future overall emissions. Comparing actual data with past projections for levels of emission intensity reveals that reductions have been slower than predicted over the past 40 years. This divergence highlights the challenges many countries may face in reaching their ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 27 , Pages 6

Journal Article
COVID-19 and CO2
Hale, Galina; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-07-06)
One potential side effect from the rapid decline of global economic activity since the worldwide pandemic is a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Historically, CO2 emissions rise and fall in tandem with economic activity in the short run. Since the industries most affected by the downturn also produce the most CO2, emissions could drop more than output this time around. However, without substantial and sustained changes in energy sources and efficiency, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere—the relevant factor causing climate change—will continue on its upward trajectory.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 18 , Pages 06

Working Paper
What are Large Global Banks Doing About Climate Change?
Beltran, Daniel O.; Uysal, Pinar (2023-01)
We review the "climate action plans" of Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs) and the progress they are making toward achieving them. G-SIBs have identified the drivers of climate risk and their transmission channels to credit and other risks. Additionally, some have started to measure and model these risks. While most GSIBs have committed to fully offsetting their emissions by mid-century, they are only beginning to measure financed emissions resulting from their loans and investments, which comprise the vast majority of their emissions. G-SIBs have also committed to increase green ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1368

Journal Article
The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference
Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Hale, Galina; Jordà, Òscar (2019-12-16)
To better understand the implications of climate change for the financial sector and the broader economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco recently hosted a conference on the economics of climate change to gather and debate the latest analyses from universities and policy institutions, nationally and abroad. It was the first Fed-sponsored conference devoted to investigating the economic and financial consequences and risks arising from climate change and potential policy responses.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2019 , Issue 31 , Pages 5

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