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Journal Article
Sectoral Impacts of Trade Wars
Wang, Ping; Cheng, Wan-Jung (2022)
In recent years, we have witnessed rising trade protectionism with broad ranges of tariffs imposed on intermediate products. In this article, we develop an accounting framework to evaluate the sectoral impacts of the current U.S.-China trade war. We find that U.S. final demand and intermediate demand for goods produced by China decline significantly, with the largest losses occurring in the Electronic and ICT (information and communications technology) industry and the Electrical industry. We obtain sizable deadweight losses for the United States, particularly in the Electronic and ICT; ...
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 1 , Pages 17-40

Working Paper
Can rising housing prices explain China’s high household saving rate?
Wen, Yi; Wang, Xin (2010)
China?s average household saving rate is one of the highest in the world. One popular view attributes the high saving rate to fast rising housing prices and other costs of living in China. This article uses simple economic logic to show that rising housing prices and living costs per se cannot explain China?s high household saving rate. Although borrowing constraints and demographic changes can help translate housing prices to the aggregate saving rate, quantitative simulations using Chinese data on household income, housing prices, and demographics indicate that rising mortgage costs ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-048

Discussion Paper
What Happens to U.S. Activity and Inflation if China’s Property Sector Leads to a Crisis?
Akinci, Ozge; Clark, Hunter L.; Dawson, Jeffrey B.; Higgins, Matthew; Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Nourbash, Ethan; Nallamotu, Ramya (2024-03-26)
A previous post explored the potential implications for U.S. growth and inflation of a manufacturing-led boom in China. This post considers spillovers to the U.S. from a downside scenario, one in which China’s ongoing property sector slump takes another leg down and precipitates an economic hard landing and financial crisis.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240326

Report
How did China’s WTO entry benefit U.S. prices?
Feenstra, Robert C.; Romalis, John; Dai, Mi; Amiti, Mary (2017-06-01)
We analyze the effects of China?s rapid export expansion following World Trade Organization (WTO) entry on U.S. prices, exploiting cross-industry variation in trade liberalization. Lower input tariffs boosted Chinese firms? productivity, lowered costs, and, in conjunction with reduced U.S. tariff uncertainty, expanded export participation. We find that China?s WTO entry significantly reduced variety-adjusted U.S. manufacturing price indexes between 2000 and 2006. For the Chinese components of these indexes, one-third of the beneficial impact comes from Chinese exporters lowering their prices, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 817

Report
Quid pro quo: Technology capital transfers for market access in China
Prescott, Edward C.; McGrattan, Ellen R.; Holmes, Thomas J. (2013)
Despite the recent rapid development and greater openness of China?s economy, FDI flows between China and technologically advanced countries are relatively small in both directions. We assess global capital flows in light of China?s quid pro quo policy of exchanging market access for transfers of technology capital?accumulated know-how such as research and development (R&D) that can be used in multiple production locations. We first provide empirical evidence of this policy and then incorporate it into a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model. This extension leads to a significantly ...
Staff Report , Paper 486

Journal Article
Money and credit in China
Cheng, Hang-Sheng (1981-10)
Economic Review , Issue Fall , Pages 19-36

Report
Patent data appendix for quid pro quo: Technology capital transfers for market access in China
Prescott, Edward C.; McGrattan, Ellen R.; Holmes, Thomas J. (2013)
Despite the recent rapid development and greater openness of China?s economy, FDI flows between China and technologically advanced countries are relatively small in both directions. We assess global capital flows in light of China?s quid pro quo policy of exchanging market access for transfers of technology capital?accumulated know-how such as research and development (R&D) that can be used in multiple production locations. We first provide empirical evidence of this policy and then incorporate it into a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model. This extension leads to a significantly ...
Staff Report , Paper 488

Journal Article
Interprovincial inequality in China
Candelaria, Christopher; Hale, Galina; Daly, Mary C. (2009)
In this Economic Letter, we document the increasing income inequality among Chinese provinces over the past two decades. Our discussion highlights three important facts. First, economic growth has lifted living standards throughout China, with all provinces gaining in absolute terms. Second, economic growth has benefited some provinces more than others, increasing regional income inequality. Third, no single explanation can account for the steady increase in inequality among provinces over time. These observations suggest that China, like many industrialized nations, will continue to struggle ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Government Connections and Financial Constraints: Evidence from a Large Representative Sample of Chinese Firms
Xu, Lixin Colin; Cull, Robert; Sun, Bo; Li, Wei (2015-01-21)
We examine the role of firms' government connections, defined by government intervention in CEO appointment and the status of state ownership, in determining the severity of financial constraints faced by Chinese firms. We demonstrate that government connections are associated with substantially less severe financial constraints (i.e., less reliance on internal cash flows to fund investment), and that the sensitivity of investment to internal cash flows is higher for firms that report greater obstacles to obtaining external funds. We also find that those large non-state firms with weak ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1129

Working Paper
The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment
Schott, Peter K.; Pierce, Justin R. (2014-01)
This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and the number of firms engaged in China-U.S. trade. These results are robust to other potential explanations of the employment loss, and we show that the U.S. employment trends differ from those in the E.U., where there was no change in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-04

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