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Discussion Paper
Following Borrowers through Forbearance
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2020-11-17)
Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data reported that total household debt balances increased slightly in the third quarter of 2020, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. This increase marked a reversal from the modest decline in the second quarter of 2020, a downturn driven by a sharp contraction in credit card balances. In the third quarter, credit card balances declined again, even as consumer spending recovered somewhat; meanwhile, mortgage originations came in at a robust $1.049 trillion, the highest level since 2003. Many of the efforts ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20201117
Discussion Paper
Where Have the Paycheck Protection Loans Gone So Far?
Liu, Haoyang; Volker, Desi
(2020-05-06)
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is a central piece of the CARES Act. In the program’s first round, $349 billion in forgivable government-guaranteed loans were extended to small businesses to cover costs related to payroll and utilities, as well as mortgage and rent payments. The program opened for applications on April 3 and was oversubscribed by April 16. Because of its popularity, lawmakers passed a new bill replenishing the fund with another $310 billion and the Small Business Administration (SBA) started approving loans again on April 27. With a new round of PPP lending underway, ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20200506
Journal Article
How Much Did the CARES Act Help Households Stay Afloat?
Teng, Gladys; Oliveira, Luiz E.; Aylward, James; Laderman, Elizabeth
(2021-07-06)
Widespread job losses starting in mid-March last year forced many households to rely more heavily on nonemployment income and liquid assets on hand to continue buying what they needed. Federal assistance through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act helped boost household resilience—the ability to sustain consumption despite the loss of employment income. Data suggest that the aid increased household resilience by 15 weeks, chiefly through enhanced unemployment insurance benefits. Among racial groups, this benefited Black and Hispanic households the most, raising median ...
FRBSF Economic Letter
, Volume 2021
, Issue 18
, Pages 06
Journal Article
Pandemic Relief Has Aided Low-Income Individuals: Evidence from Alternative Financial Services
Tran, Thao; Toh, Ying Lei
(2020-12-30)
Although low-income individuals are more likely to have lost their jobs due to the COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic relief efforts may have helped prevent them from experiencing increased financial distress. Consumer interest in payday loans, title loans, and pawn loans have all declined since the onset of the pandemic, suggesting low-income individuals have been able to access credit and meet basic financial needs without the use of these alternative financial services.
Economic Bulletin
Discussion Paper
Debt Relief and the CARES Act: Which Borrowers Face the Most Financial Strain?
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Nober, William; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2020-08-19)
In yesterday's post, we studied the expected debt relief from the CARES Act on mortgagors and student debt borrowers. We now turn our attention to the 63 percent of American borrowers who do not have a mortgage or student loan. These borrowers will not directly benefit from the loan forbearance provisions of the CARES Act, although they may be able to receive some types of leniency that many lenders have voluntarily provided. We ask who these borrowers are, by age, geography, race and income, and how does their financial health compare with other borrowers.
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20200819
Working Paper
Ten Days Late and Billions of Dollars Short: The Employment Effects of Delays in Paycheck Protection Program Financing
Doniger, Cynthia L.; Kay, Benjamin S.
(2021-01-15)
Delay in the provision of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans due to insufficient initial funding under the CARES Act substantially and persistently reduced employment. Delayed loans increased job losses in May and persistently reduced recalls throughout the summer. The magnitude and heterogeneity of effects suggest significant barriers to obtaining external financing, particularly among small firms. Effects are inequitably distributed: larger among the self-employed, less well paid, less well educated and--importantly for the design of future programs--in very small firms. Our estimates ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2021-003
Financial Positions of U.S. Public Corporations: Part 5, The Main Street Lending Program: Potential Benefits and Costs
Gourio, Francois; Crouzet, Nicolas
(2020-06-18)
This blog post is the fifth in a series that discusses how the current pandemic affects the financial positions of publicly traded U.S. corporations, the potential implications of these financial developments, and the federal policy response. In this post, we study the economic benefits and costs of the Main Street Lending Program, created by the Federal Reserve to support corporations during this crisis. We make four points, which reflect our analysis and are not the views of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. First, the main potential benefit of this program ...
Chicago Fed Insights
Working Paper
UI Generosity and Job Acceptance: Effects of the 2020 CARES Act
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Valletta, Robert G.
(2024-04-12)
We assess labor market effects of the CARES Act $600 UI supplement. We start with direct empirical analyses of labor force transitions using monthly CPS data and imputed UI benefits. The results show moderate disincentive effects of the supplement on job finding. We rationalize this result in a dynamic model of job acceptance decisions that yields a reservation level of UI benefits at which a recipient is indifferent between unemployment and employment at their prior wage. Calculations based on the model confirm that only a small fraction of recipients of the enhanced UI benefits were likely ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2021-13
Working Paper
Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel
(2021-02)
I study the effects of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak in the United States and subsequent fiscal policy response in a nonlinear DSGE model. The pandemic is a shock to the utility of contact-intensive services that propagates to other sectors via general equilibrium, triggering a deep recession. I use a calibrated version of the model that matches the path of the US unemployment rate in 2020 to analyze different types of fiscal policies. I find that the pandemic shock changes the ranking of policy multipliers. Unemployment benefits are the most effective tool to stabilize income for borrowers, ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-006
Speech
Implementing the Fed’s Facilities: Moving at Maximum Speed with Maximum Care
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/
(2020-04-17)
Remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University (delivered via audio webinar).
Speech
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