Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
Large Capital Inflows, Sectoral Allocation, and Economic Performance
Benigno, Gianluca; Converse, Nathan L.; Fornaro, Luca (2015-03-16)
This paper describes the stylized facts characterizing periods of exceptionally large capital inflows in a sample of 70 middle- and high-income countries over the last 35 years. We identify 155 episodes of large capital inflows and find that these events are typically accompanied by an economic boom and followed by a slump. Moreover, during episodes of large capital inflows capital and labor shift out of the manufacturing sector, especially if the inflows begin during a period of low international interest rates. However, accumulating reserves during the period in which capital inflows are ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1132

Report
Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits
Goldberg, Linda S. (2023-06-01)
Global liquidity refers to the volumes of financial flows—largely intermediated through global banks and non-bank financial institutions—that can move at relatively high frequencies across borders. The amplitude of responses to global conditions like risk sentiment, discussed in the context of the global financial cycle, depends on the characteristics and vulnerabilities of the institutions providing funding flows. Evidence from across empirical approaches and using granular data provides policy-relevant lessons. International spillovers of monetary policy and risk sentiment through ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1064

Journal Article
The global saving glut and the fall in U.S. real interest rates: A 15-year retrospective
Barsky, Robert; Easton, Matthew (2021-03-31)
The authors revisit Ben Bernanke’s global saving glut (GSG) hypothesis from 2005—which links low long-term real interest rates in the United States to excess saving in a number of non-Western countries, including, but not limited to, China. Using an analytical framework and empirical data, they find that the ability of the GSG hypothesis to explain the fall in long-term real rates between 2002 and 2006 is likely much greater than its ability to account for the further fall in these rates from the Great Recession onward.
Economic Perspectives , Issue EP-2021-1 , Pages 15

Asset Prices, Leverage and Portfolio Rebalancing Drive Global Capital Flows Cycle
Davis, J. Scott; Van Wincoop, Eric (2021-11-30)
The amount of leverage—borrowed funds relative to the value of underlying assets—increases for risky holdings during downturns, motivating their ultimate sale to achieve a more secure financial position. The opposite occurs during upswings, as risky assets gain favor.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
A Theory of the Global Financial Cycle
Davis, J. Scott; Van Wincoop, Eric (2021-09-09)
We develop a theory to account for changes in prices of risky and safe assets and gross and net capital flows over the global financial cycle (GFC). The multi-country model features global risk-aversion shocks and heterogeneity of investors both within and across countries. Within-country heterogeneity is needed to account for the drop in gross capital flows during a negative GFC shock (higher global risk-aversion). Cross-country heterogeneity is needed to account for the differential vulnerability of countries to a negative GFC shock. The key vulnerability is associated with leverage. In ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 410

Report
Liquidity traps, capital flows
Acharya, Sushant; Bengui, Julien (2016-01-01)
Motivated by debates surrounding international capital flows during the Great Recession, we conduct a positive and normative analysis of capital flows when a region of the global economy experiences a liquidity trap. Capital flows reduce inefficient output fluctuations in this region by inducing exchange rate movements that reallocate expenditure toward the goods it produces. Restricting capital mobility hampers such an adjustment. From a global perspective, constrained efficiency entails subsidizing capital flows to address an aggregate demand externality associated with exchange rate ...
Staff Reports , Paper 765

Working Paper
U.S. Housing as a Global Safe Asset: Evidence from China Shocks
Barcelona, William; Wong, Anna; Converse, Nathan L. (2021-11-12)
This paper demonstrates that the measured stock of China's holding of U.S. assets could be much higher than indicated by the U.S. net international investment position data due to unrecorded historical Chinese inflows into an increasingly popular global safe haven asset: U.S. residential real estate. We first use aggregate capital flows data to show that the increase in unrecorded capital inflows in the U.S. balance of payment accounts over the past decade is mainly linked to inflows from China into U.S. housing markets. Then, using a unique web traffic dataset that provides a direct measure ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1332

Working Paper
Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America
Ohanian, Lee E.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J. (2015-11-04)
Since 1950, the economies of East Asia grew rapidly but received little international capital, while Latin America received considerable international capital even as their economies stagnated. The literature typically explains the failure of capital to flow to high growth regions as resulting from international capital market imperfections. This paper proposes a broader thesis that country-specific distortions, such as domestic labor and capital market distortions, also impact capital flows. We develop a DSGE model of Asia, Latin America, and the Rest of the World that features an ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2015-8

Report
International capital flow pressures
Goldberg, Linda S.; Krogstrup, Signe (2018-02-01)
This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast exchange market pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes a global risk response index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 834

Working Paper
The Global Financial Cycle and Capital Flows During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Davis, J. Scott; Zlate, Andrei (2022-05-13)
We estimate the heterogeneous effect of the global financial cycle on exchange rates and cross-border capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic, using weekly exchange rate and portfolio flow data for a panel of 48 advanced and emerging market economies. We begin by estimating the global financial cycle at a weekly frequency with data through 2021 and observe the two standard deviation fall in our global financial cycle index over a period of four weeks in March 2020. We then estimate the country-specific sensitivities of exchange rates and capital flows to fluctuations in the global ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 416

show more (51)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords