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Keywords:business cycles OR Business cycles OR Business Cycles 

Journal Article
Are U.S. and Seventh District business cycles alike?

This article explains the recent high levels of residential investment and rates of homeownership.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 30 , Issue Q III , Pages 45-60

Working Paper
Production and inventory behavior of capital

This paper provides a dynamic optimization model of durable good inventories to study the interactions between investment demand and production of capital goods. There are three major findings: First, capital suppliers' inventory behavior makes investment demand more volatile in equilibrium; Second, equilibrium price of capital is characterized by downward stickiness; Third, the responses of the capital market to interest rate and other environmental changes are asymmetric. All are the results of equilibrium interactions between demand and supply.
Working Papers , Paper 2005-044

Briefing
Explaining the car industry cluster: the case of U.S. car makers from 1895-1969

The geographic clustering of companies within an industry is often attributed to several agglomeration economies: intra-industry spillovers (benefits from proximity to firms in the same industry), inter-industry spillovers (benefits from proximity to firms in related industries), and spinoffs (firms established by former employees of a company in the same industry). Analysis of data on the U.S. auto industry in its first 75 years sheds light on the relative importance of those forces to the clustering of car makers
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Oct

Working Paper
What Happened to the US Economy During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data

Burns and Mitchell (1946, 109) found a recession of "exceptional brevity and moderate amplitude." I confirm their judgment by examining a variety of high-frequency data. Industrial output fell sharply but rebounded within months. Retail seemed little affected and there is no evidence of increased business failures or stressed financial system. Cross-sectional data from the coal industry documents the short-lived impact of the epidemic on labor supply. The Armistice possibly prolonged the 1918 recession, short as it was, by injecting momentary uncertainty. Interventions to hinder the contagion ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-11

Conference Paper
How does it matter? Commentary: whatever happened to contracyclical policy?

Proceedings

Journal Article
Some skeptical observations on real business cycle theory

Quarterly Review , Volume 10 , Issue Fall , Pages 23-27

Report
Grown-up business cycles

We document two striking facts about U.S. firm dynamics and interpret their significance for employment dynamics. The first is the dramatic decline in firm entry and the second is the gradual shift of employment toward older firms since 1980. We show that despite these trends, the lifecycle dynamics of firms and their business cycle properties have remained virtually unchanged. Consequently, aging is the delayed effect of accumulating startup deficits. Together, the decline in the employment contribution of startups and the shift of employment toward more mature firms contributed to the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 707

Working Paper
Identifying business cycle turning points in real time

This paper evaluates the ability of a statistical regime-switching model to identify turning points in U.S. economic activity in real time. The authors work with Markov-switching models of real GDP and employment that, when estimated on the entire post-war sample, provide a chronology of business cycle peak and trough dates very close to that produced by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Next, they investigate how accurately and quickly the models would have identified turning points had they been used in real-time for the past forty years. In general, the models identify ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2002-27

Working Paper
Substitution elasticities and investment dynamics in two country business cycle models

Two country applications of equilibrium business cycle methodology have succeeded in matching some key features of international fluctuations. However, discrepancies between theory and data remain. This paper identifies an anomaly related to a basic property of typical models: The prediction of countercyclical net exports is fundamentally related to a counterfactual implication for negative cross-country investment correlations. The introduction of investment adjustment costs can induce positive investment comovement; however, this has the side-effect of reversing the cyclical behavior of net ...
Working Papers , Paper 2002-030

Working Paper
Housing and the business cycle

In the United States, the percentage standard deviation of residential investment is more than twice that of non-residential investment. In addition, GDP, consumption, and both types of investment co-move positively. We reproduce these facts in a calibrated multi-sector growth model where construction, manufacturing and services are combined, in different proportions, to produce consumption, business investment and residential structures. New housing requires land in addition to new structures. The model can also account for important features of industry-level data. In particular, hours and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2004-11

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