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Discussion Paper
Household Services Expenditures: An Update
McCarthy, Jonathan
(2012-11-26)
This post updates and extends my July 2011 blog piece on household discretionary services expenditures. I examine the most recent data to see what they reveal about the depth of decline in expenditures in the last recession and the extent of the recovery, and find that the expenditures appear to be further below the peak identified earlier. I then compare the pace of recovery for discretionary and nondiscretionary services in this expansion with that of previous expansions, finding that the pace in both cases is well below that of previous cycles. In summary, household spending continues to ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20121126
Job cyclicality provides timely signals on Texas, U.S. business cycle
Kalkunte, Prithvi; Yousuf, Mariam
(2025-04-22)
The cyclicality of industries and their behavior provide early indications of economic turning points in Texas and the U.S. and provide a timelier view than other data that are widely used to confirm downturns and expansions.
Dallas Fed Economics
Working Paper
The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages
Fleischman, Charles A.
(1999)
A model's ability to explain procyclical movements in real wages has become an important benchmark by which macroeconomists judge business cycle theories. Because Keynesian models with sticky nominal wages predict countercyclical real wages, they have been criticized and dismissed in favor of Real Business Cycle models or New Keynesian models based on price stickiness or countercyclical markups. The bulk of the evidence for procyclical real wages, however, comes from studies using panel data that estimate the unconditional, contemporaneous correlation between real wages and the unemployment ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 1999-53
Working Paper
What Happened to the US Economy During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data
Velde, Francois R.
(2020-07-07)
Burns and Mitchell (1946, 109) found a recession of “exceptional brevity and moderate amplitude.” I confirm their judgment by examining a variety of high-frequency, aggregate and cross-sectional data. Industrial output fell sharply but rebounded within months. Retail seemed little affected and there is no evidence of increased business failures or stressed financial system. Cross-sectional data on manufacturing employment indicates that most of the recession, brief as it was, was due to the Armistice rather than the epidemic. Data from the nationwide coal industry documents the sharp but ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2020-11
Working Paper
Recessions and recoveries in real business cycle models: do real business cycle models generate cyclical behavior?
Wynne, Mark A.; Balke, Nathan S.
(1993)
Working Papers
, Paper 9322
Working Paper
Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
Jordà, Òscar; Kornejew, Martin; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
(2020-12-08)
With business leverage at record levels, the effects of corporate debt overhang on growth and investment have become a prominent concern. In this paper, we study the effects of corporate debt overhang based on long-run cross-country data covering the near universe modern business cycles. We show that business credit booms typically do not leave a lasting imprint on the macroeconomy. Quantile local projections indicate that business credit booms do not affect the economy’s tail risks either. Yet in line with theory, we find that the economic costs of corporate debt booms rise when ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2020-36
Working Paper
Measuring the cyclicality of real wages: how important is aggregation across industries?
Swanson, Eric T.
(1999)
There is a growing consensus among economists that real wages in the postwar U.S. have been moderately to strongly procyclical, particularly in panel data on workers. From the point of view of hiring decisions of firms, however, this conclusion may be premature or even erroneous. Whether a firm's labor demand curve is stable or shifting at business cycle frequencies should be tested with a wage that is deflated by the firm's own price of output, with appropriate controls for the prices of intermediate inputs, and with respect to the cyclical state of the firm's own industry, as opposed to the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 1999-52
Journal Article
Steady-as-she-goes? an analysis of the San Antonio business cycle
Phillips, Keith R.; Hamden, Kristen
(2004)
Vista
Conference Paper
Taking intermediation seriously
Smith, Bruce D.
(2003)
Proceedings
Journal Article
Ties that bind: bilateral trade's role in synchronizing business cycles
Ramanarayanan, Ananth
(2009)
For most of the past year, economies in all parts of the world have been weakening--from outright recessions in the U.S. and parts of Europe to sharply slower growth in China, India and other emerging economies. The pattern provides the latest example of international business-cycle synchronization--the tendency for countries to experience macroeconomic fluctuations of similar timing and magnitude. ; While today's synchronization isn't unusual, it raises questions about the forces that transmit economic fluctuations from one country to another. An important factor to consider is international ...
Economic Letter
, Volume 4
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