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Discussion Paper
The Recent Rise in Discount Window Borrowing
The Federal Reserve’s primary credit program—offered through its “discount window” (DW)—provides temporary short-term funding to fundamentally sound banks. Historically, loan activity has been low during normal times due to a variety of factors, including the DW’s status as a back-up source of liquidity with a relatively punitive interest rate, the stigma attached to DW borrowing from the central bank, and, since 2008, elevated levels of reserves in the banking system. However, beginning in 2022, DW borrowing under the primary credit program increased notably in comparison to past ...
Journal Article
Two Years into COVID, What’s the State of U.S. Businesses?
More than two years after the outbreak of COVID-19, concerns remain that U.S. businesses are substantially more vulnerable and less productive than in the past. Using extensive data on private and public firms allows for a detailed assessment of these concerns. According to a number of performance measures, businesses borrowing from large U.S. banks appear relatively healthy, increased leverage is concentrated among safer companies rather than riskier ones, and probabilities of default are close to pre-crisis levels.
Discussion Paper
Who’s Borrowing in the Fed Funds Market?
The federal funds market plays an important role in the implementation of monetary policy. In our previous post, we examine the lending side of the fed funds market and the decline in total fed funds volume since the onset of the financial crisis. In today’s post, we discuss the borrowing side of this market and the interesting role played by foreign banks.
Discussion Paper
The Rapidly Changing Nature of Japan’s Public Debt
Japan’s general government debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest of advanced economies, due in part to increased spending on social services for an aging population and a level of nominal GDP that has not increased for two decades. The interest rate payments from taxpayers on this debt are moderated by income earned on government assets and by low interest rates. One might think that the Bank of Japan’s purchases of government bonds would further ease the burden on taxpayers, with interest payments to the Bank of Japan on its bond holdings rebated back to the government. Merging the balance ...
How Much Are We “Taxed” by Surprise Inflation?
When inflation surprises to the upside, borrowers pay back less in real terms. And Uncle Sam is America’s biggest borrower.
Working Paper
Does Risk-Taking Increase or Decrease with Higher Interest Rates?
We present a framework that accounts for how interest rates affect risk-taking by borrowers indirectly, by changing the borrower’s demand for credit (investment size). We find that this borrowing demand effect runs counter to the direct borrowing rate effect, and risk-taking can increase or decrease with higher rates depending on the relative strength of these effects. We show that the borrowing rate effect dominates when the borrower’s share of project returns is increasing in investment, so risk-taking increases with interest rates. However, the borrowing demand effect dominates when ...