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Working Paper
The Impact of Market Factors on Racial Identity: Evidence from Multiracial Survey Respondents
This paper examines the reported race of multiracial persons in the US Current Population Survey (CPS) before 2003, when limited response options exogenously constrained respondents to identify as a single race. Using this survey attribute and the 16-month longitudinal design of the basic monthly CPS, I explore whether market factors help causally determine racial identity. I find that pre-2003 race responds to state-level (1) racial composition, due largely to household composition, and (2) unemployment rates and wages by race. Although these findings suggest potential endogeneity of race, ...
Report
Anxiety and pro-cyclical risk taking with Bayesian agents
We provide a model that can explain empirically relevant variations in confidence and risk taking by combining horizon-dependent risk aversion (?anxiety?) and selective memory in a Bayesian intrapersonal game. In the time series, overconfidence is more prevalent when actual risk levels are high, while underconfidence occurs when risks are low. In the cross section, more anxious agents are more prone to biased confidence and their beliefs fluctuate more. This systematic variation in confidence levels can lead to objectively excessive risk taking by ?insiders? with the potential to amplify ...