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Working Paper
Nonbank Lenders as Global Shock Absorbers: Evidence from US Monetary Policy Spillovers
Meisenzahl, Ralf R.; Peydró, José-Luis; Elliott, David (2023-08)
We show that nonbank lenders act as global shock absorbers from US monetary policy spillovers. We exploit loan-level data from the global syndicated lending market and US monetary policy surprises. When US policy tightens, nonbanks increase dollar credit supply to non-US firms (relative to banks), mitigating the dollar credit reduction. This increase is stronger for riskier firms, proxied by emerging market firms, high-yield firms, or firms in countries with stronger capital inflow restrictions. However, firm-lender matching, zombie lending, fragile-nonbank lending, or periods of low vs ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-29

Journal Article
Bank consolidation and merger activity following the crisis.
Kowalik, Michal; Regehr, Kristen; Morris, Charles S.; Davig, Troy A. (2015-01)
Michal Kowalik, Troy Davig, Charles S. Morris, and Kristen Regehr analyze the financial characteristics of acquired community banks from 2011 to 2014.
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 31-49

Discussion Paper
Tracking the U.S. Banking Industry
Vickery, James; Avraham, Dafna; Sullivan, Tara (2012-10-10)
The New York Fed has recently published the first edition of a new quarterly report tracking the aggregate financial condition of consolidated U.S. banking organizations. In this post, we describe the methodology used to construct the statistics in the report as well as present and briefly discuss some of the findings.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121010

Working Paper
A Macroeconomic Model of Central Bank Digital Currency
Paul, Pascal; Ulate, Mauricio; Wu, Jing Cynthia (2024-04-08)
We develop a quantitative New Keynesian DSGE model to study the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC): government-backed digital money available to retail consumers. At the heart of our model are monopolistic banks with market power in deposit and loan markets. When a CBDC is introduced, households benefit from an expansion of liquidity services and higher deposit rates as bank deposit market power is curtailed. However, deposits also flow out of the banking system and bank lending contracts. We assess this welfare trade-off for a wide range of economies that differ in their ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-11

Newsletter
Interest-only mortgages and speculation in hot housing markets
Barlevy, Gadi; Fisher, Jonas D. M. (2020-05-28)
Even as housing markets have temporarily shut down across the U.S. during the Covid-19 pandemic, housing remains a key sector that contributes disproportionately to fluctuations in overall economic activity and that will likely play an important role as the economy reopens. Interest in this market among research economists and policymakers intensified after the exceptional boom and bust in housing between 2003 and 2008. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we describe research in Barlevy and Fisher (2020)1 that examined patterns in the kinds of mortgages homebuyers took out in different cities during ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 439 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Are Basel's Capital Surcharges for Global Systemically Important Banks Too Small?
von Hafften, Alexander H.; Passmore, Wayne (2017-02-21)
The Basel Committee promulgates bank regulatory standards that many major economies enact to a significant extent. One element of the Basel III capital standards is a system of capital surcharges for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). If the purpose of the surcharges is to ensure the survival of G-SIBs through serious crises (like the 2007-09 financial crisis) without extraordinary public assistance, our analysis suggests that current surcharges are too low because of three shortcomings: (1) the Basel system underestimates the probability that a G-SIB can fail, (2) the Basel system ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-021

Working Paper
Financial Business Cycles
Iacoviello, Matteo (2014-08-28)
Using Bayesian methods, I estimate a DSGE model where a recession is initiated by losses suffered by banks and exacerbated by their inability to extend credit to the real sector. The event triggering the recession has the workings of a redistribution shock: a small sector of the economy -- borrowers who use their home as collateral -- defaults on their loans. When banks hold little equity in excess of regulatory requirements, the losses require them to react immediately, either by recapitalizing or by deleveraging. By deleveraging, banks transform the initial shock into a credit crunch, and, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1116

Working Paper
Endogenous Debt Maturity and Rollover Risk
Brancati, Emanuele; Macchiavelli, Marco (2016-09-09)
We challenge the common view that short-term debt, by having to be rolled over continuously, is a risk factor that exposes banks to higher default risk. First, we show that the average effect of expiring obligations on default risk is insignificant; it is only when a bank has limited access to new funds that maturing debt has a detrimental impact on default risk. Next, we show that both limited access to new funds and shorter maturities are causally determined by deteriorating market expectations about the bank's future profitability. In other words, short-term debt is not a cause of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-074

Discussion Paper
Are BHC and Federal Reserve Stress Test Results Converging? What Do We Learn from 2015?
Kovner, Anna; Hirtle, Beverly; McKay, Eric (2015-04-06)
In March, the Federal Reserve and thirty-one large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) announced results of the latest Dodd-Frank Act-mandated stress tests. Some commentators have argued that BHCs, in designing their stress test models, have strong incentives to mimic the Fed’s stress test results, since the Fed’s results are an integral part of the Federal Reserve’s supervisory assessment of capital adequacy for these firms. In this post, we look at the 2015 stress test projections by the eighteen largest U.S. BHCs and by the Fed and compare them to similar numbers from 2013 and 2014. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150406

Discussion Paper
Tax Reform's Impact on Bank and Corporate Cyclicality
Van Tassel, Peter; Sanchez, Vanesa; Kovner, Anna; Aragon, Diego (2018-07-16)
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is expected to increase after-tax profits for most companies, primarily by lowering the top corporate statutory tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. At the same time, the TCJA provides less favorable treatment of net operating losses and limits the deductibility of net interest expense. We explain how the latter set of changes may heighten bank and corporate borrower cyclicality by making bank capital and default risk for highly levered corporations more sensitive to economic downturns.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180716

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