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Newsletter
Interest-only mortgages and speculation in hot housing markets

Even as housing markets have temporarily shut down across the U.S. during the Covid-19 pandemic, housing remains a key sector that contributes disproportionately to fluctuations in overall economic activity and that will likely play an important role as the economy reopens. Interest in this market among research economists and policymakers intensified after the exceptional boom and bust in housing between 2003 and 2008. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we describe research in Barlevy and Fisher (2020)1 that examined patterns in the kinds of mortgages homebuyers took out in different cities during ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 439 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Banking Trends: Measuring Cov-Lite Right

More business loans today lack traditional covenants governing borrowers. Does that leave banks with fewer tools to ward off default?
Economic Insights , Volume 3 , Issue 3 , Pages 1-8

Speech
The Federal Reserve’s Pandemic Response

Remarks at Union of Arab Banks Webinar: Global Banking in Light of COVID-19 and Geopolitical Development (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
Credit Ratings, Private Information, and Bank Monitoring Ability

In this paper, we use credit rating data from two large Swedish banks to elicit evidence on banks' loan monitoring ability. For these banks, our tests reveal that banks' internal credit ratings indeed include valuable private information from monitoring, as theory suggests. Banks' private information increases with the size of loans.
Working Papers , Paper 16-14

Report
Federal Reserve tools for managing rates and reserves

The Federal Reserve announced in January 2019 that it would maintain an ample supply of reserves amid its balance sheet reduction. We model the impact of reserves on banks’ liquidity and balance sheet costs. In competitive general equilibrium, the optimal supply of reserves equates bank deposit rates to the interest rate paid on excess reserves (IOER), consistent with ample reserves. Raising the Fed’s overnight reverse repo rate up to IOER would increase liquidity, expediently reduce the overabundance of reserves, and stabilize the volatility of overnight market rates. Empirical analysis ...
Staff Reports , Paper 642

Working Paper
Banks as Patient Fixed Income Investors

We examine the business model of traditional commercial banks in the context of their co-existence with shadow banks. While both types of intermediaries create safe "money-like" claims, they go about this in very different ways. Traditional banks create safe claims with a combination of costly equity capital and fixed income assets that allows their depositors to remain "sleepy": they do not have to pay attention to transient fluctuations in the mark-to-market value of bank assets. In contrast, shadow banks create safe claims by giving their investors an early exit option that allows them ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-15

Discussion Paper
Banking the Unbanked: The Past and Future of the Free Checking Account

About one in twenty American households are unbanked (meaning they do not have a demand deposit or checking account) and many more are underbanked (meaning they do not have the range of bank-provided financial services they need). Unbanked and underbanked households are more likely to be lower-income households and households of color. Inadequate access to financial services pushes the unbanked to use high-cost alternatives for their transactional needs and can also hinder access to credit when households need it. That, in turn, can have adverse effects on the financial health, educational ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210630a

Journal Article
Banking recovery could be vulnerable to interest rate increases

The earnings on assets?generally loans?may not respond as rapidly as the cost of funds?deposits?leading to declining profits.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q2 , Pages 10-13

Working Paper
Bank Profitability and Debit Card Interchange Regulation: Bank Responses to the Durbin Amendment

The Durbin Amendment to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 alters the competitive structure of the debit card payment processing industry and caps debit card interchange fees for banks with over $10 billion in assets. Market participants predicted that debit card issuers would offset the reduction in debit interchange revenue by increases in customer account fees. Some participants also predicted that banks would cut costs in response to the law by reducing staff and shutting down branches. Using a difference-in-differences testing strategy, we show that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-77

Speech
Remarks at the New Jersey Bankers Association Regional Meeting

Remarks at the New Jersey Bankers Association Regional Meeting, Woodbridge, New Jersey.
Speech

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