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Journal Article
Has AI Improved Productivity?
Research Spotlight on "Does Machine Translation Affect International Trade? Evidence from a Large Digital Platform." Erik Brynjolfsson, Xiang Hui, and Meng Liu. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 24917, August 2018.
Discussion Paper
AI and the Labor Market: Will Firms Hire, Fire, or Retrain?
The rapid rise in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to dramatically change the labor market, and indeed possibly even the nature of work itself. However, how firms are adjusting their workforces to accommodate this emerging technology is not yet clear. Our August regional business surveys asked manufacturing and service firms special topical questions about their use of AI, and how it is changing their workforces. Most firms that report expected AI use in the next six months plan to retrain their workforces, with far fewer reporting adjustments to planned headcounts.
Journal Article
Federal Reserve: Artificial Intelligence and Bank Supervision
Artificial intelligence has come a long way since English mathematician, logician, and cryptographer Alan Turing's seminal 1950 essay, "Computing Machinery and Intelligence," which explored the idea of building computers capable of imitating human thought. In 1997, almost 50 years after Turing's essay, AI posted a historic breakthrough when the IBM supercomputer Deep Blue won a chess match against reigning world champion Garry Kasparov. Since then, AI's capabilities have improved rapidly, largely through advances in machine learning (ML), especially in ML models that use digital neural ...
Journal Article
New from the Richmond Fed’s Regional Matters blog
Journal Article
Interview: Daron Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu is one of MIT's nine university- wide Institute Professors, the university's highest faculty rank. One of his predecessors, Robert Solow, developed a pathbreaking mathematical model of economic growth in the 1950s. Today, Acemoglu says hurray for economic growth — but is also concerned that choices made by policymakers and companies are channeling the gains from that growth away from workers. And as he sees things, the powerful AI technologies that have come to the fore in the past several years, embedded in products such as ChatGPT, should be regulated with the economic ...
Journal Article
Opinion: Artificial Intelligence: Potentials and Prospects
We are at the dawn of a new technological revolution. The recent development of artificial intelligence (AI), especially the emergence of generative AI, has offered a plausible future in which machines will eventually free humans from a wide range of cognitive tasks, unleashing vast creativity and productivity gains.
AI and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Historical Developments in Other Technologies
An analysis of the diffusion of PCs, smart devices, cloud computing and 3D printing suggests that AI may spread in a pattern similar to those of PCs and cloud computing.
Working Paper
Explaining Machine Learning by Bootstrapping Partial Dependence Functions and Shapley Values
Machine learning and artificial intelligence methods are often referred to as “black boxes” when compared with traditional regression-based approaches. However, both traditional and machine learning methods are concerned with modeling the joint distribution between endogenous (target) and exogenous (input) variables. Where linear models describe the fitted relationship between the target and input variables via the slope of that relationship (coefficient estimates), the same fitted relationship can be described rigorously for any machine learning model by first-differencing the partial ...
Discussion Paper
By Degree(s): Measuring Employer Demand for AI Skills by Educational Requirements
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has prompted widespread interest and discussion about its potential to transform the labor market. For workforce development practitioners, a key issue is how AI is changing the nature of work, mainly through changes in the skills workers need to be competitive for the jobs of today and of the future. In this Workforce Currents, we explore the growth of employer demand for AI skills in online job postings data between 2010 and 2024. Lightcast, a labor analytics firm, provides job postings data that includes several useful features of ...
Journal Article
Machine Learning a Ramsey Plan
We use a Python program to calculate a pair of infinite sequences of money creation and price level inflation rates that maximize a benevolent time 0 government’s quadratic objective function for a linear-quadratic version of Calvo (1978). The program computes an open-loop representation of the optimal plan and an associated monotonically declining, bounded from below sequence of continuation values whose limit is a worst continuation value that is associated with a “timeless perspective”. We run some least squares regressions on fake data to try to learn about the structure of the ...