Search Results
Working Paper
On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment
We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the former to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate during the economic transition and that recent observations on the share are sufficient to estimate the onset of transition. Our model implies that (i) output growth is higher and increasing after the onset of transition, (ii) during the transition, it is a first-order autoregressive process, and (iii) the rate of decline in the share of ...
Working Paper
On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment
We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the former to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate during the economic transition and that recent observations on the share are sufficient to estimate the onset of transition. Our model implies that (i) output growth is higher and increasing after the onset of transition, (ii) during the transition, it is a first-order autoregressive process, and (iii) the rate of decline in the share of ...
Working Paper
On the Transition to Modern Growth: Lessons from Recent Agricultural Employment
We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the Malthus technology to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate. Using a few recent observations on the share, we estimate the onset of transition for the U.S. and Western Europe without using output data. We show that output growth is higher after the estimated onset of transition than it is before. Our model implies that output growth during the transition is a first-order autoregressive ...
Working Paper
On the Transition to Modern Growth
We study a simple model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). The economy's output exhibits three stages: (i) stagnation, (ii) transition with increasing growth, and (iii) constant growth in the long run. We map the Malthus technology to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment is sufficient to determine the onset of economic transition. Using data on the share, we estimate the onset of transition for the U.S. and Western Europe without using output data. Our model implies that ...
Working Paper
On the Transition to Modern Growth
We study a simple model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). The economy's output exhibits three stages: (i) stagnation; (ii) transition with increasing growth; (iii) constant growth in the long run. We map the Malthus technology to agriculture and show that the share of employment in agriculture is sufficient to determine both the onset of economic transition and the dynamics of output during the transition. Using 20th century data on agricultural share of employment, we project backward and estimate ...
Working Paper
On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment
We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the former to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate during the economic transition and that recent observations on the share are sufficient to estimate the onset of transition. Our model implies that (i) output growth is higher and increasing after the onset of transition, (ii) during the transition, it is a first-order autoregressive process, and (iii) the rate of decline in the share of ...
Working Paper
On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment
We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the former to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate during the economic transition and that recent observations on the share are sufficient to estimate the onset of transition. Our model implies that (i) output growth is higher and increasing after the onset of transition, (ii) during the transition, it is a first-order autoregressive process, and (iii) the rate of decline in the share of ...
Journal Article
Some Segments of the Agricultural Economy Are Particularly Sensitive to Changes in the Foreign-Born Farm Labor Supply
For years, many segments of the U.S. agriculture sector have relied on foreign-born and undocumented workers to meet labor demand in farm operations. While farm operators may be able to partly reduce this reliance through investments in machinery and further hiring through the agricultural guest worker visa program, these alternatives would take time to deploy and could substantially increase costs.