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Working Paper
Capital Controls and the Global Financial Cycle
Matschke, Johannes; Lovchikova, Marina (2021-09-08)
Capital flows into emerging markets are volatile and associated with risks. A common prescription is to impose counter-cyclical capital controls that tighten during economic booms to mitigate future sudden-stop dynamics, but it has been challenging to document such patterns in the data. Instead, we show that emerging markets tighten their capital controls in response to volatility in international financial markets and elevated risk aversion. We develop a model in which this behavior arises from a desire to manipulate the risk premium. When investors are more risk-averse or markets are ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-08

Briefing
The Stars Our Destination: An Update for Our R* Model
Lubik, Thomas A.; Matthes, Christian (2023-09)
We report and discuss recent estimates of the natural real rate of interest, denoted r*. We analyze how the current flow of data renders r* estimates less reliable, and we consider some changes in the specification of the long-standing Lubik-Matthes model.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 32

Working Paper
Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks
Klepacz, Matthew (2021-04-30)
How do changes in aggregate volatility alter the impulse response of output to monetary policy? To analyze this question, I study whether individual prices in Producer Price Index micro data are more likely to change and to move in the same direction when aggregate volatility is high, which would increase aggregate price exibility and reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy. Taking advantage of plausibly exogenous oil price volatility shocks and heterogeneity in oil usage across industries, I find that price changes are more dispersed and less frequent, implying that prices are less ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1316

Working Paper
The Relationship between Market Depth and Liquidity Fragility in the Treasury Market
Meldrum, Andrew C.; Sokolinskiy, Oleg (2025-02-21)
Analysis of market liquidity often focuses on measures of the current cost of trading. However, investors and policy-makers also care about what would happen to liquidity in the event of an adverse shock. If liquidity were to deteriorate rapidly at times when investors were seeking to rebalance portfolios, this could amplify the effects of shocks to the financial system even if liquidity is high most of the time. We examine the potential for such fragility of liquidity in the Treasury market. We show that a reduction in the availability of resting orders to trade ("market depth") increases ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-014

Working Paper
Spectral Backtests of Forecast Distributions with Application to Risk Management
McNeil, Alexander J.; Gordy, Michael B. (2018-03-23)
We study a class of backtests for forecast distributions in which the test statistic is a spectral transformation that weights exceedance events by a function of the modeled probability level. The choice of the kernel function makes explicit the user's priorities for model performance. The class of spectral backtests includes tests of unconditional coverage and tests of conditional coverage. We show how the class embeds a wide variety of backtests in the existing literature, and propose novel variants as well. In an empirical application, we backtest forecast distributions for the overnight ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-021

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