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Working Paper
Happiness maintenance and asset prices
Falato, Antonio (2008)
This paper constructs a simple dynamic asset pricing model which incorporates recent evidence on the influence of immediate emotions on risk preferences. Investors derive direct utility from both consumption and financial wealth and, consistent with the happiness maintenance feature documented by Isen (1999) and others, become more cautious toward their wealth in good times. Mild pro-cyclical changes in risk aversion over wealth cause large pro-cyclical fluctuations in the current price-dividend ratio which, due to general equilibrium restrictions, translate into counter-cyclical variation in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2008-19

Journal Article
Measuring economic uncertainty using the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Sill, Keith (2012-10)
Uncertainty about how the economy will evolve is a key concern for households and firms. People?s views on how likely it is that the economy will be growing, stagnating, or in recession help shape the actions they take today. Consequently, how households and firms respond to uncertainty has implications for economic activity. In addition, uncertainty matters to policymakers: Monetary policymakers recognize that if uncertainty about future inflation is high, decision-making by households and firms becomes more complicated. In this article, Keith Sill describes how uncertainty can be measured ...
Business Review , Issue Q4 , Pages 16-27

Working Paper
The effects of expectations on perception: experimental design issues and further evidence
Williams, Tyler (2007)
Numerous studies have found that top-down processes can affect perceptions. This study examines some of the issues involved in designing field experiments aimed at discovering whether top-down mental processes affect perceptions, and, if so, how the influence takes place. Lee, Frederick, and Ariely (2006) (LFA) attempt to go further by testing whether expectations affect perception directly, by altering how sensory receptors and/or the brain?s processing centers interpret a outside stimulus?or indirectly, for example, by changing the amount of attention paid to the outside stimulus. In order ...
Working Papers , Paper 07-14

Conference Paper
Monetary policy in an uncertain environment
Feldstein, Martin (2003)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
The political polarization index
Azzimonti-Renzo, Marina (2013)
American politics have become increasingly polarized in recent decades. To the extent that political polarization introduces uncertainty about economic policy, this pattern may have adversely affected the economy. According to existing theories, a rise in the volatility of fiscal shocks faced by individuals should result in a decline in economic activity. Moreover, if polarization is high around election dates, businesses and households may be induced to delay decisions that involve high reversibility costs (such as investment or hiring under search costs). Testing these theories has been ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-41

Working Paper
Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-05-07)
The COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns about the future of work. The pandemic may become recurrent, necessitating repeated adoptions of social distancing measures (voluntary or mandatory), creating substantial uncertainty about worker productivity. But robots are not susceptible to the virus. Thus, pandemic-induced job uncertainty may boost the incentive for automation. However, elevated uncertainty also reduces aggregate demand and reduces the value of new investment in automation. We assess the importance of automation in driving business cycle dynamics following an increase in job ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-19

Working Paper
Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty
Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas; Edge, Rochelle M. (2007)
This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies not only uncertainty about the dynamics of the economy. It also implies uncertainty about the model's utility-based welfare criterion and about the economy's natural rate measures of interest and output. We analyze the characteristics and performance of alternative monetary policy rules given the estimated uncertainty regarding ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2007-56

Discussion Paper
Trade Policy Uncertainty May Affect the Organization of Firms’ Supply Chains
Heise, Sebastian; Schaur, Georg; Schott, Peter K.; Pierce, Justin R. (2019-11-06)
Global trade policy uncertainty has increased significantly, largely because of a changing tariff regime between the United States and China. In this blog post, we argue that trade policy can have a significant effect on firms? organization of supply chains. When the probability of a trade war rises, firms become less likely to form long-term, just-in-time relationships with foreign suppliers, which may lead to higher costs and welfare losses for consumers. Our research shows that even in the absence of actual tariff changes, an increased likelihood of a trade war can significantly distort ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191106

Working Paper
Uncertainty and fiscal cliffs
Davig, Troy A.; Foerster, Andrew T. (2014-04-01)
Motivated by the US Fiscal Cliff in 2012, this paper considers the short- and longer- term impact of uncertainty generated by fiscal policy. Empirical evidence shows increases in economic policy uncertainty lower investment and employment. Investment that is longer-lived and subject to a longer planning horizon responds to policy uncertainty with a lag, while capital that depreciates more quickly and can be installed with few costs falls immediately. A DSGE model incorporating uncertainty over future tax regimes produces responses to fiscal uncertainty that match key features of the data. The ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 14-4

Working Paper
Do uncertainty and technology drive exchange rates?
Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo (2009)
This paper investigates the extent to which technology and uncertainty contribute to fluctuations in real exchange rates. Using a structural VAR and bilateral exchange rates, the author finds that neutral technology shocks are important contributors to the dynamics of real exchange rates. Investment-specific and uncertainty shocks have a more restricted effect on international prices. All three disturbances cause short-run deviations from uncovered interest rate parity.
Working Papers , Paper 09-20

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