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Report
The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits
Several studies have shown that, ex-post, the issuance of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) has cost U.S. taxpayers money. We propose that evaluations of the TIPS program be more comprehensive and focus on the ex-ante costs of TIPS issuance versus nominal Treasury issuance and, especially when these costs are negligible, the more difficult-to-measure benefits of the program. Our study finds that the ex-ante costs of TIPS issuance versus nominal Treasury issuance are currently about equal and that TIPS provide meaningful benefits to investors and policymakers.
Report
Macro news, risk-free rates, and the intermediary: customer orders for thirty-year Treasury futures
Customer order flow correlates with permanent price changes in equity and non-equity markets. We examine macro news events in the thirty-year Treasury futures market to identify causality from customer flow to risk-free rates. We remove the positive feedback trading effect and establish that, in the fifteen minutes subsequent to the news, intermediaries rely on customer orders to determine a substantial part of the announcement?s effect on risk-free rates?about one-third relative to the instantaneous effect. Intermediaries appear to benefit from privately observing informed customers, since ...
Journal Article
Indexed bonds as an aid to monetary policy
A measure of the publics expectation of inflation would assist the Fed in formulating monetary policy. In order to create such a measure, the U.S. Treasury could issue its debt in two forms: standard debt and debt indexed for inflation. The difference in yield on these two forms of debt would measure the publics expectation of inflation.
Journal Article
Treasury inflation-indexed debt: a review of the U.S. experience
This article describes the evolution of Treasury inflation-indexed debt securities (TIIS) since their introduction in 1997. Over most of this period, TIIS yields have been surprisingly high relative to those on comparable nominal Treasury securities, with the spread between the nominal and indexed yields falling well below survey measures of long-run inflation expectations. The authors argue that the low relative valuation of TIIS may have reflected investor difficulty adjusting to a new asset class, supply trends, and the lower liquidity of indexed debt. In addition, investors may have had a ...
Speech
Regional and national economic conditions
Remarks before the Morris County Chamber of Commerce, Florham Park, New Jersey.
Report
Responses to the financial crisis, treasury debt, and the impact on short-term money markets
Several programs have been introduced by U.S. fiscal and monetary authorities in response to the financial crisis. We examine the responses involving Treasury debt?the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), the Supplemental Financing Program, increases in Treasury issuance, and open market operations?and their impacts on the overnight Treasury general collateral repo rate, a key money market rate. Our contribution is to consider each policy in light of the others, both to help guide policy responses to future crises and to emphasize policy interactions. Only the TSLF was designed to ...
Speech
The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits
Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Inflation-Indexed Securities and Inflation Risk Management Conference.
Report
Estimating the impacts of U.S. LSAPs on emerging market economies’ local currency bond markets
This paper examines whether large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) by the Federal Reserve influenced capital flows out of the United States and into emerging market economies (EMEs) and also analyzes the degree of pass-through from long-term U.S. government bond yields to long-term EME bond yields. Using panel data from a broad array of EMEs, our empirical estimates suggest that a 10-basis-point reduction in long-term U.S. Treasury yields results in a 0.4-percentage-point increase in the foreign ownership share of emerging market debt. This, in turn, is estimated to reduce government bond yields ...
Report
The microstructure of the TIPS market
We characterize the microstructure of the market for Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) using novel tick data from the interdealer market. We find a marked difference in trading activity between on-the-run and off-the-run securities, as in the nominal Treasury securities market. We find little difference in bid-ask spreads or quoted depth between on-the-run and off-the-run securities, in contrast to the nominal market, but we do find a sharp difference in the incidence of posted quotes. Intraday activity differs strikingly from the nominal market, with activity peaking in the ...