Search Results
Journal Article
The global battle over central bank independence
Working Paper
Screening and adverse selection in frictional markets
We incorporate a search-theoretic model of imperfect competition into an otherwise standard model of asymmetric information with unrestricted contracts. We develop a methodology that allows for a sharp analytical characterization of the unique equilibrium and then use this characterization to explore the interaction between adverse selection, screening, and imperfect competition. On the positive side, we show how the structure of equilibrium contracts?and, hence, the relationship between an agent?s type, the quantity he trades, and the corresponding price?is jointly determined by the severity ...
Speech
Opening remarks at the Global Association of Risk Professionals forum
Opening remarks at the Global Association of Risk Professionals Forum, New York City.
Journal Article
Announcements and the role of policy guidance
By providing guidance about future economic developments, central banks can affect private sector expectations and decisions. This can improve welfare by reducing private sector forecast errors, but it can also magnify the impact of noise in central bank forecasts. I employ a model of heterogeneous information to compare outcomes under opaque and transparent monetary policies. While better central bank information is always welfare improving, more central bank information may not be.
Working Paper
Will greater disclosure and transparency prevent the next banking crisis?
Greater transparency and disclosure of bank activities will not prevent banking crises unless appropriate monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policies are also adopted. Nonetheless, greater disclosure of banking problems can reduce the costs of banking crises, even if transparency is not a panacea for preventing banking crises.
Conference Paper
Strengthening the emerging market economies
Working Paper
Central Bank Communication about Climate Change
This paper applies natural language processing to a large corpus of central bank speeches to identify those related to climate change. We analyze these speeches to better understand how central banks communicate about climate change. By all accounts, communication about climate change has accelerated sharply in recent years. The breadth of topics covered is wide, ranging from the impact of climate change on the economy to financial innovation, sustainable finance, monetary policy, and the central bank mandate. Financial stability concerns are touched upon, but macroprudential policy is rarely ...
Working Paper
Impact of greater bank disclosure amidst a banking crisis
Banking crises have continued to emerge in recent years, contributing to severe economic contractions in Japan, Russia, and Southeast Asia. In response, international organizations have advocated enhanced market discipline, encouraging countries to improve disclosure. One reason so little progress has been made is that neither the proponents nor the opponents of enchanted disclosure policies have persuasive empirical evidence to support their views on potential costs and benefits of such a policy. This paper fills that gap by examining the impact of requiring the release of supervisory ...
Journal Article
Trading activity and price transparency in the inflation swap market
The issues of liquidity and price transparency in derivatives markets have taken on greater import given regulatory efforts under way to improve their transparency. To date, the lack of transaction data has impeded the understanding of how the inflation swap and other derivatives markets operate. This article broadens that understanding by using a novel transaction data set to examine trading activity and price transparency in the quickly growing U.S. inflation swap market. The authors find that the market appears reasonably liquid and transparent, despite its over-the-counter nature and ...