Search Results
Report
Are larger Treasury issues more liquid? Evidence from bill reopenings
This paper makes use of a natural experiment of the U.S. Treasury Department to examine the relationship between Treasury security issue size and liquidity. Treasury bills that were first issued with fifty-two weeks to maturity and then reopened at twenty-six weeks are shown to be more liquid than comparable maturity bills that were first issued with twenty-six weeks to maturity. The relationship is less pronounced when bills are on-the-run (the most recently auctioned bills of a given maturity) than when they are off-the-run, and persists when controlling for other factors that affect ...
Newsletter
How the U.S. Treasury Futures Market and the Basis Trade Could Be Affected by the Treasury Clearing Mandate: Part 1—A Primer
A recent mandate by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) aims to improve the resilience and transparency of markets for U.S. Treasury cash securities and repurchase agreements (repos) by requiring transactions for both be cleared and settled through an authorized central counterparty (CCP). I explore the implications of this mandate for Treasury markets and central clearing in a two-part Chicago Fed Letter series. Part 1 is a primer on Treasury futures and the Treasury cash–futures basis trade—two key features of the Treasury markets that could also be affected by the mandate.
Report
Measuring treasury market liquidity
This paper examines a comprehensive set of liquidity measures for the U.S. Treasury market. The measures are analyzed relative to one another, across securities, and over time. I find highly significant price impact coefficients, such that a simple model that explains price changes with net order flow produces an R statistic above 30 percent for the two-year note. The price impact coefficients are highly correlated with bid-ask spreads and with episodes of reported poor liquidity (such as the fall 1998 financial markets turmoil). Quote and trade sizes correlate modestly with these episodes ...
Discussion Paper
Primary Dealer Participation in the Secondary U.S. Treasury Market
The recent Joint Staff Report on October 15, 2014, exploring an episode of unprecedented volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, revealed that primary dealers no longer account for most trading volume on the interdealer brokerage (IDB) platforms. This shift is noteworthy because dealers contribute to long-term liquidity provision via their willingness to hold positions across days. However, a large share of Treasury security trading occurs elsewhere, in the dealer-to-customer (DtC) market. In this post, we show that primary dealers maintain a majority share of secondary market trading volume ...