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Working Paper
Regionalization vs. globalization
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the global, regional, and country-specific factors in explaining business cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period 1960?2010. We find that, since the mid-1980s, the importance of regional factors has increased markedly in explaining business cycles especially in regions that ...
Working Paper
Financial Integration and the Co-Movement of Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States
We analyze the effect of the geographic expansion of banks across U.S. states on the comovement of economic activity between states. Exploiting the removal of interstate banking restrictions to construct time-varying instrumental variables at the state-pair level, we find that bilateral banking integration increases output co-movement between states. The effect of financial integration depends on the nature of the idiosyncratic shocks faced by states and is stronger for more financially dependent industries. Finally, we show that integration (1) increases the similarity of bank lending ...