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Working Paper
Earnings Shocks and Stabilization During COVID-19
This paper documents the magnitude and distribution of U.S. earnings changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and how fiscal relief offset lost earnings. We build panels from administrative tax data to measure annual earnings changes. The frequency of earnings declines during the pandemic were similar to the Great Recession, but the distribution was very different. In 2020, workers starting in the bottom half of the distribution were more likely to experience large annual earnings declines and a similar share of male and female workers had large earnings declines. While most workers experiencing ...
Working Paper
Earnings Business Cycles: The Covid Recession, Recovery, and Policy Response
Using a panel of tax data, we follow the earnings of individuals over business cycles. Compared to prior recessions, the Covid policy response and recovery were far more progressive. Among workers starting in the bottom quintile, median real earnings including fiscal relief increased 66 percent in 2020 and earnings increases offset relief decreases in the 2021 recovery. After the prior two recessions, this measure had decreased by 24 percent. Among those starting in the top quintile, median and average real earnings were approximately unchanged. This difference from prior recessions is ...
Working Paper
Earnings Business Cycles: The Covid Recession, Recovery, and Policy Response
Using a panel of tax data, we follow the earnings of individuals over business cycles. Compared to prior recessions, the Covid policy response and recovery were far more progressive. Among workers starting in the bottom quintile, median real earnings including fiscal relief increased 66 percent in 2020 and earnings increases offset relief decreases in the 2021 recovery. After the prior two recessions, this measure had decreased by 24 percent. Among those starting in the top quintile, median and average real earnings were approximately unchanged. This difference from prior recessions is ...
Working Paper
Earnings Business Cycles: The Covid Recession, Recovery, and Policy Response
Using a panel of tax data, we follow the earnings of individuals over business cycles. Compared to prior recessions, the Covid policy response and recovery were far more progressive. Among workers starting in the bottom quintile, median real earnings including fiscal relief increased 66 percent in 2020 and earnings increases offset relief decreases in the 2021 recovery. After the prior two recessions, this measure had decreased by 24 percent. Among those starting in the top quintile, median and average real earnings were approximately unchanged. This difference from prior recessions is ...