Search Results
The Arms Trade and Its Bearing on the Russia-Ukraine War
The arms trade links nations through their security interests, and its current patterns may be complicating a political resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Working Paper
Financial market reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
This article analyzes financial market reactions to the Russia-Ukraine war with a focus on the opening weeks. Markets did not completely anticipate the war and asset price reactions strengthened from the first week—when there were hopes for a quick resolution—to the second week, when prices generally peaked and began to partially revert to pre-war values. Exposure to commodity trade and trade with Russia-Ukraine determined market perceptions of the riskiness of equity and foreign exchange assets. Credit default swap prices on sovereign debt and breakeven inflation rates indicate that ...
Journal Article
Russian banking
Journal Article
Could Russia have learned from China?
Journal Article
A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998
This paper uses a currency crisis framework to analyze the currency devaluation and debt default of post-Soviet Russia in August 1998. The authors show that even though the Russian economy recorded positive growth immediately preceding the default, the atmosphere was reflective of an impending crisis. The authors then consider the symptoms of a currency crisis?specifically public and private debt responsibilities, devaluation expectations, and contractionary monetary policy?and show that they were present in Russia at that time. Three generations of currency crisis models are reviewed, ...
Journal Article
A Shutoff of Russian Natural Gas
A shutoff of Russian natural gas to Europe will produce heterogenous effects that reflect local winter weather, national dependence on such flows, and policy responses.
Journal Article
Disruptions to Russian Energy Supply Likely to Weigh on European Output
The Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent oil sanctions from European countries have substantially disrupted the supply of Russian oil and gas. We estimate the effects of these disruptions on European output and find that a decline in the Russian oil and gas supply in 2022 could lead to a sizable drop in European output over 2023–24, though the effect differs across countries and sectors .
Journal Article
Agriculture in the former Soviet Union: the long road ahead
Journal Article
How the Russia-Ukraine War Helped Fuel Record Fertilizer Prices
The Russia-Ukraine war further tightened the global supply of fertilizer, pushing prices to record highs in March 2022 and causing concern for U.S. farmers.