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Journal Article
Measuring Small Business Financial Health
Onyeago, Chinwe; Newberger, Robin G.; Everett, Craig; Longworth, Susan (2015)
Throughout the Great Recession and continuing into the recovery, small businesses have played an important role in creating jobs and stabilizing communities. Stories of small business owners overcoming obstacles to provide valuable services and employment are highlighted regularly by pundits, politicians and policymakers alike. However, little attention has focused on the question of what drives the financial health of these often young, often very small businesses.
Profitwise , Issue 2 , Pages 1-9

Working Paper
Financial Distress and Macroeconomic Risks
Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mather, Ryan; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2021-10-22)
This paper investigates how, and how much, household financial distress (FD), arising from allowing debts to go unpaid, matters for the aggregate and cross-sectional consumption responses to macroeconomic risk. Through a battery of structural models, we show that FD can affect consumption responses through three channels: (1) as another margin of adjustment to shocks (direct channel); (2) because its persistence implies a significant degree of preference heterogeneity (indirect channel); and (3) because it can exacerbate macroeconomic risks whenever it is more severe in the hardest-hit ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-025

Discussion Paper
Waiting for Recovery: New York Schools and the Aftermath of the Great Recession
Livingston, Max; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2013-09-23)
A key institution that was significantly affected by the Great Recession is the school system, which plays a crucial role in building human capital and shaping the country’s economic future. To prevent major cuts to education, the federal government allocated $100 billion to schools as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), commonly known as the stimulus package. However, the stimulus has wound down while many sectors of the economy are still struggling, leaving state and local governments with budget squeezes. In this post, we present some key findings on how ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130923a

Working Paper
Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic
Bodenstein, Martin; Guerrieri, Luca; Corsetti, Giancarlo (2020-04-17)
Drastic public health measures such as social distancing or lockdowns can reduce the loss of human life by keeping the number of infected individuals from exceeding the capacity of the health care system but are often criticized because of the social and the economic cost they entail. We question this view by combining an epidemiological model, calibrated to capture the spread of the COVID-19 virus, with a multisector model, designed to capture key characteristics of the U.S. Input Output Tables. Our two-sector model features a core sector that produces intermediate inputs not easily replaced ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-031

Journal Article
Changing Credit Profile of Consumers: Aging Versus the Business Cycle
Doh, Taeyoung (2017-10-18)
The average consumer credit score reached a record high recently. While some commentators attributed this development to the cyclical rebound from the Great Recession, I find that the changing age distribution of credit applicants also played a significant role. Changes in demographics alone can explain 43 percent of the increase in the average score from 1999:Q1 to 2017:Q2.
Macro Bulletin

Hot Money Credits to Kick-Start a Stalled Economy?
Andolfatto, David (2020-05-29)
Stimulus checks that must be spent within a certain amount of time could help trigger spending if the economy continues to stall.
On the Economy

Journal Article
The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity
Van Zandweghe, Willem; Redmond, Michael (2016-01)
Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007?09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 39-64

Working Paper
Machine Learning, the Treasury Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting
Puglia, Michael; Tucker, Adam (2020-05-20)
We use machine learning methods to examine the power of Treasury term spreads and other financial market and macroeconomic variables to forecast US recessions, vis-à-vis probit regression. In particular we propose a novel strategy for conducting cross-validation on classifiers trained with macro/financial panel data of low frequency and compare the results to those obtained from standard k-folds cross-validation. Consistent with the existing literature we find that, in the time series setting, forecast accuracy estimates derived from k-folds are biased optimistically, and cross-validation ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-038

Discussion Paper
Discretionary Services Expenditures in This Business Cycle
McCarthy, Jonathan (2011-07-06)
The pronounced weakness in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services has been an unusual feature of the 2007-09 recession and the slow recovery from it. Even in 2010:Q4, when real PCE increased at a relatively robust 4.1 percent annual rate, real PCE on services rose at only a 1.4 percent rate. This weakness has been especially evident in “discretionary” services (to be defined below), which fell more in the recent recession than in previous recessions and since have rebounded more sluggishly. In this post, I suggest that the continued sluggishness in these expenditures lends a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110706

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