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Working Paper
Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2020-05-20)
It is a remarkable fact about the historical US business cycle that, after unemployment reached its peak in a recession, and a recovery began, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate was stable at around 0.55 percentage points per year. The economy seems to have had an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. There was high variation in monetary and fiscal policy, and in productivity and labor-force growth, but little variation in the rate of decline of unemployment. We explore models of the labor market's self-recovery that imply gradual working off of unemployment ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 20

Working Paper
The Unemployed with Jobs and without Jobs
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2022-02-15)
Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups—those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group expanded tremendously in April 2020, at the trough of the pandemic recession. They wait out periods of non-work with the understanding that their jobs still exist and that they will be recalled. We show that the resulting temporary-layoff unemployment mostly dissipated by the end of 2020. Potential workers without jobs constitute what we call jobless ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-17

Discussion Paper
How Did Education Financing in New Jersey’s Abbott Districts Fare during the Great Recession?
Sutherland, Sarah; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2013-02-06)
In the state of New Jersey, any child between the ages of five and eighteen has the constitutional right to a thorough and efficient education. The state also has one of the country’s most rigid policies regarding a balanced budget. When state and local revenues took a big hit in the most recent recession, officials had to make tough decisions about education spending. In this post, we analyze education financing and spending in two groups of high-poverty districts during the Great Recession and the ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009) federal stimulus period—the Abbott ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130206

Journal Article
Are we in a recession? The 'anxious index nowcast' knows!
Scavette, Adam (2014-12)
When the economy is in the midst of a recession, even a severe one, it can be quite difficult at first to tell. For example, as the Great Recession took hold in late 2007 and early 2008, uncertainty lingered as to whether the economy had merely slowed or was already contracting. Unfortunately for policymakers, investors, and consumers ? all of whom might have been able to use such information to make better decisions regarding consumption, investment, and saving ? the recession was not officially called until December 2008. Similarly, the four prior recessions were anywhere from five to nine ...
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Talking Ourselves into a Recession: Could our expectations about the economy be self-fulfilling?
Sablik, Timothy (2019-10)
Econ Focus , Issue 4Q , Pages 10-13

Working Paper
Effective Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities
Matschke, Johannes (2024-07-10)
Downward nominal wage rigidity limits the downward adjustment of nominal wages, especially during recessions. Although macroeconomic models suggest that downward wage rigidity exacerbates employment losses and generates asymmetric business cycles when inflation is low, direct empirical evidence for this effect is scarce. This paper estimates effective downward nominal wage rigidities that account for different inflation environments across 53 countries and finds that downward wage rigidities are associated with minimum wage policies and widespread. Further, countries with higher effective ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 22-10

Working Paper
The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Household Financial Distress Matters
Mather, Ryan; Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2024-01-04)
This paper investigates how, and how much, household financial distress (FD), arising from allowing debts to go unpaid, matters for the aggregate and cross-sectional consumption responses to macroeconomic risk. Through a battery of structural models, we show that FD can affect consumption responses through three channels: (1) as another margin of adjustment to shocks (direct channel); (2) because its persistence implies a significant degree of preference heterogeneity (indirect channel); and (3) because it can exacerbate macroeconomic risks whenever it is more severe in the hardest-hit ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-13

Working Paper
Credit Supply Shocks During a Non-Financial Recession
Rivadeneira, Alex; Alcaraz, Carlo; Amoroso, Nicolas; Oviedo Moguel, Rodolfo; Samaniego de la Parra, Brenda; Sapriza, Horacio (2025-08-25)
We study the drivers and real effects of credit supply shocks during a major non-financial recession, the COVID-19 crisis. Using data on the universe of bank loans in Mexico, we isolate the supply-driven component of credit variations. Credit supply conditions deteriorated in this period, driven by banks' heightened risk aversion. Using matched employer-employee records, we find that negative credit supply shocks reduced firms' employment and increased their exit probability. These effects are larger among financially constrained firms and workers with lower separation costs. In the ...
Working Paper , Paper 25-11

Journal Article
Measuring Small Business Financial Health
Onyeago, Chinwe; Newberger, Robin G.; Everett, Craig; Longworth, Susan (2015)
Throughout the Great Recession and continuing into the recovery, small businesses have played an important role in creating jobs and stabilizing communities. Stories of small business owners overcoming obstacles to provide valuable services and employment are highlighted regularly by pundits, politicians and policymakers alike. However, little attention has focused on the question of what drives the financial health of these often young, often very small businesses.
Profitwise , Issue 2 , Pages 1-9

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