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Working Paper
Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve
Lansing, Kevin J. (2006)
This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational expectations into an otherwise standard New-Keynesian Phillips curve. The representative agent's forecast rule is optimal (in the sense of minimizing mean squared forecast errors), conditional on a perceived law of motion for inflation and observed moments of the inflation time series. The perceived law of motion allows for both temporary and permanent shocks to inflation, the latter intended to capture the possibility of evolving shifts in the central bank's inflation target. In this case, the agent's optimal forecast rule defined by the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-15

Working Paper
How Did It Happen?: The Great Inflation of the 1970s and Lessons for Today
Nelson, Edward (2022-06-03)
The pickup in the U.S. inflation rate to its highest rates in forty years has led to renewed attention being given to the Great Inflation of the 1970s. This paper asks with regard to the Great Inflation: “How did it happen?” The answer offered is the fact that, in both the United Kingdom and the United States, monetary policy and other policy instruments were guided by a faulty doctrine—a nonmonetary view of inflation that perceived the concerted restraint of aggregate demand as both ineffective and unnecessary for inflation control. In the paper’s analysis, the difference in the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-037

Working Paper
Wage growth and sectoral shifts: Phillips curve redux
Rissman, Ellen R. (1992)
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 92-23

Conference Paper
Hysteresis in unemployment - comments
Chari, V. V. (2008)
Larry Ball's paper contains two basic ideas. The first is a second generation Phillips Curve which relates changes in inflation to the level of the unemployment rate and the second is the idea that monetary policy has extremely persistent effects on the unemployment rate, well beyond effects over the business cycle.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Journal Article
Introduction to the New Keynesian Phillips curve
Hornstein, Andreas (2008-10)
In most industrialized economies inflation tends to be pro-cyclical; that is, inflation is high during times of high economic activity. When economic activity is measured by the unemployment rate this statistical relationship is known as the Phillips curve.
Economic Quarterly , Volume 94 , Issue Fall , Pages 301-309

Journal Article
Nobel views on inflation and unemployment
Walsh, Carl E. (1997)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Job-to-Job Mobility and Inflation
Faccini, Renato; Melosi, Leonardo (2023-01-19)
The low rate of inflation observed in the U.S. over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm wage competition that can explain the missing inflation. Key to this result is a drop in the rate of on-the-job search, which lowers the intensity of interfirm wage competition to retain or hire workers. We estimate the on-the-job search rate from aggregate labor-market flows and show that its recent drop is corroborated by survey data. During "the great resignation", the indicator of interfirm wage ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-03

Working Paper
Inflation persistence
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. (2009)
This paper examines the concept of inflation persistence in macroeconomic theory. It begins with a definition of persistence, emphasizing the difference between reduced-form and structural persistence. It then examines a number of empirical measures of reduced-form persistence, considering the possibility that persistence may have changed over time. The paper then examines the theoretical sources of persistence, distinguishing ?intrinsic? from ?inherited? persistence, and deriving a number of analytical results on persistence. It summarizes the implications for persistence from the ...
Working Papers , Paper 09-14

Conference Paper
Adjustment lags vs. information lags: a test of alternative explanations of the Phillips curve phenomenon
Nelson, Charles R. (1979)
Proceedings , Issue 3 , Pages 4-22

Working Paper
Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?
Dotsey, Michael; Stark, Tom; Fujita, Shigeru (2015-03-25)
This paper reexamines the forecasting ability of Phillips curves from both an unconditional and conditional perspective by applying the method developed by Giacomini and White (2006). We find that forecasts from our Phillips curve models tend to be unconditionally inferior to those from our univariate forecasting models. We also find, however, that conditioning on the state of the economy sometimes does improve the performance of the Phillips curve model in a statistically significant manner. When we do find improvement, it is asymmetric -- Phillips curve forecasts tend to be more accurate ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-16

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