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Working Paper
The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models
Zha, Tao; Waggoner, Daniel F.; Wu, Hongwei (2014-11-01)
Having efficient and accurate samplers for simulating the posterior distribution is crucial for Bayesian analysis. We develop a generic posterior simulator called the "dynamic striated Metropolis-Hastings (DSMH)" sampler. Grounded in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, it draws its strengths from both the equi-energy sampler and the sequential Monte Carlo sampler by avoiding the weaknesses of the straight Metropolis-Hastings algorithm as well as those of importance sampling. In particular, the DSMH sampler possesses the capacity to cope with incredibly irregular distributions that are full ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-21

Journal Article
The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear
Higgins, Patrick C. (2021-09-09)
The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the country that took relatively large hits to their unemployment rate and employment-population ratio during the pandemic have had lower inflation, on average, than areas that took relatively small hits. And, just as prior to the pandemic, the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment continues to be statistically stronger for the prices of services than of goods.The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 11 , Pages 20

Journal Article
Fixing the New Keynesian Phillips curve
Dennis, Richard (2007)
This Economic Letter looks at the problems with the NKPC and discusses some alternatives that are increasingly being used to think about inflation and the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The magic's gone: a hard look at the data shows that the famous Phillips curve does no better at forecasting inflation than a simple look at the past
Clement, Douglas (2001-09)
The Region , Issue Sep , Pages 14-18

Working Paper
Wage growth and sectoral shifts: Phillips curve redux
Rissman, Ellen R. (1992)
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 92-23

Working Paper
Inflation persistence
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. (2009)
This paper examines the concept of inflation persistence in macroeconomic theory. It begins with a definition of persistence, emphasizing the difference between reduced-form and structural persistence. It then examines a number of empirical measures of reduced-form persistence, considering the possibility that persistence may have changed over time. The paper then examines the theoretical sources of persistence, distinguishing ?intrinsic? from ?inherited? persistence, and deriving a number of analytical results on persistence. It summarizes the implications for persistence from the ...
Working Papers , Paper 09-14

Conference Paper
Modeling inflation after the crisis
Watson, Mark W.; Stock, James H. (2010)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Report
The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc; Sahin, Aysegul (2024-03-01)
Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, ut*, in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary supply factors, we also find an important role for current and expected negative unemployment gaps. Through the lens of the model, the 2022-23 disinflation was driven by the expectation that the unemployment gap will close through a progressive decline in ut* and a rise in the unemployment rate. This implies that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1086

Working Paper
Nonlinear Inflation Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies
Blanco, Andres; Boar, Corina; Jones, Callum J.; Midrigan, Virgiliu (2024-02-02)
Canonical menu cost models, when parameterized to match the micro-price data, cannot reproduce the extent to which the fraction of price changes increases with inflation. They also predict implausibly large menu costs and misallocation in the presence of strategic complementarities. We resolve these shortcomings by extending the multiproduct menu cost model along two dimensions. First, the products sold by a firm are imperfect substitutes. Second, strategic complementarities are at the firm, not product level. In contrast to standard models, the fraction of price changes increases rapidly ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-005

Working Paper
Controlling for geographic dispersion when estimating the Japanese Phillips curve
Wall, Howard J.; Fujiki, Hiroshi (2006)
This paper argues that estimation of the Phillips curve for Japan should take account of the geographic dispersion of labor-market conditions. We find evidence that the relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate is convex. With such convexity, wage inflation can occur when unemployment rates across regions become more disperse, even if the aggregate unemployment rate is unchanged. We show that controlling for the geographic dispersion of unemployment rates yields a flatter Phillips curve and a higher natural rate of unemployment.
Working Papers , Paper 2006-057

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