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Journal Article
The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear
Higgins, Patrick C. (2021-09-09)
The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the country that took relatively large hits to their unemployment rate and employment-population ratio during the pandemic have had lower inflation, on average, than areas that took relatively small hits. And, just as prior to the pandemic, the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment continues to be statistically stronger for the prices of services than of goods.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 11

Journal Article
Is the Last Mile More Arduous?
Rapach, David E. (2024-01-16)
US inflation surged starting in spring 2021, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reaching a 40-year high of 9 percent in mid-2022. Together with improving supply-chain conditions, policy tightening by the Fed decreased inflation to within 1 to 2 percentage points of its 2 percent target by late 2023 without a significant increase in unemployment. However, concerns have been raised that the last mile of disinflation to reduce inflation consistently to its 2 percent target will be more arduous than the previous miles. Close examination of such concerns indicates that they do not receive ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2024 , Issue 1

Running the economy hotter for longer could steepen Phillips curve
Mau, Ron; Atkinson, Tyler (2024-07-16)
In the short run, running the economy hot—with output growth above potential—comes with the cost of additional inflation. But policymakers cannot exploit this relationship forever because inflation expectations won’t remain anchored, as the public comes to expect a higher level of inflation for any given level of output.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Testing for Contemporaneous Exogeneity in Linear Time-Series Models
Dovonon, Prosper; Gospodinov, Nikolay (2026-09-23)
We propose a test for contemporaneous exogeneity of regressors in linear time-series models. The test takes the form of a specification test with an expanding number of moment conditions. The test does not require external instruments and is based only on information contained in the regressors. Under the null of exogeneity, the test is characterized by a standard normal limit when the moment conditions are expanding at a particular rate relative to the sample size. We establish the consistency of the test under the alternative hypothesis when testing for exogeneity of the full set as well as ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-14

Working Paper
The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models
Waggoner, Daniel F.; Wu, Hongwei; Zha, Tao (2014-11-01)
Having efficient and accurate samplers for simulating the posterior distribution is crucial for Bayesian analysis. We develop a generic posterior simulator called the "dynamic striated Metropolis-Hastings (DSMH)" sampler. Grounded in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, it draws its strengths from both the equi-energy sampler and the sequential Monte Carlo sampler by avoiding the weaknesses of the straight Metropolis-Hastings algorithm as well as those of importance sampling. In particular, the DSMH sampler possesses the capacity to cope with incredibly irregular distributions that are full ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-21

Working Paper
Nonlinear Inflation Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies
Boar, Corina; Blanco, Andrés; Midrigan, Virgiliu; Jones, Callum J. (2024-09-23)
Existing menu cost models, when parameterized to match the micro-price data, cannot reproduce the extent to which the fraction of price changes increases with inflation. In addition, in the presence of strategic complementarities, they predict implausibly large menu costs and misallocation. We resolve these shortcomings using a multi-product menu cost model that features two key ingredients. First, the products sold by a firm are imperfect substitutes. Second, strategic complementarities are at the firm, not product level. In contrast to existing models, the fraction of price changes ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 10

Working Paper
The Inflation Accelerator
Boar, Corina; Blanco, Andrés; Midrigan, Virgiliu; Jones, Callum J. (2024-09-23)
We develop a tractable sticky price model in which the fraction of price changes evolves endogenously over time and, consistent with the evidence, increases with inflation. Because we assume that firms sell multiple products and choose how many, but not which, prices to adjust in any given period, our model admits exact aggregation and reduces to a one-equation extension of the Calvo model. This additional equation determines the fraction of price changes. The model features a powerful inflation accelerator—a feedback loop between inflation and the fraction of price changes—that ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 12

Conference Paper
On implications of micro price data for macro models - comments
Midrigan, Virgiliu (2008)
The author discusses: the challenges the wealth of micro-data has posed to macroeconomists and some of the progress made to address these; the fact that an important number of price changes in the data are temporary discounts (sales); and the complicated mapping from the frequency of price adjustment to the degree of monetary non-neutrality in economies that explicitly model price stickiness as arising from menu costs.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Conference Paper
Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy - comments
Kiley, Michael T. (2008)
Historical experience suggests an important role for some deviation from the most restricted form of rational expectations in inflation dynamics, but also shows that other aspects of sluggish price adjustment, such as nominal rigidities, are important; and the available indicators of inflation expectations show that imperfect information regarding central bank intentions has been one source of inertia in inflation expectations.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Conference Paper
Lessons for central bankers from a Phillips curve framework
Kohn, Donald L. (2008)
The author's comments focus on how the lessons from recent research on the Phillips curve are helping him think about the influence of fluctuations in the prices of commodities, such as oil, on the outlook for inflation and the appropriate policy responses to such developments.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

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