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Journal Article
When can we forecast inflation?
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Liu, Chin Te; Zhou, Ruilin (2002-01)
This article reassesses recent work that has challenged the usefulness of inflation forecasts. The authors find that inflation forecasts were informative in 1977-84 and 1993-2000, but less informative in 1985-92. They also find that standard forecasting models, while generally poor at forecasting the magnitude of inflation, are good at forecasting the direction of change of inflation.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 26 , Issue Q I , Pages 32-44

Conference Paper
Hysteresis in unemployment - comments
Chari, V. V. (2008)
Larry Ball's paper contains two basic ideas. The first is a second generation Phillips Curve which relates changes in inflation to the level of the unemployment rate and the second is the idea that monetary policy has extremely persistent effects on the unemployment rate, well beyond effects over the business cycle.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Journal Article
Trend Inflation and Implications for the Phillips Curve
Hajdini, Ina (2023-04-17)
This Economic Commentary estimates trend PCE inflation and a Phillips curve with time-varying parameters while allowing for trend inflation to affect the frequency at which firms change prices. Since the beginning of 2021, trend PCE inflation has risen well above the FOMC’s 2 percent long-term inflation target, and the most recent estimate of trend inflation in 2022:Q4 is 3.4 percent. With the increase in trend inflation, the Phillips curve slope has risen above its prepandemic level. At the same time, the relationship between current inflation and inflation expectations has strengthened. ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2023 , Issue 07 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Phillips curves, monetary policy, and a labor market transmission mechanism
Reed, Robert R.; Schreft, Stacey L. (2007)
This paper develops a general equilibrium monetary model with performance incentives to study the inflation-unemployment relationship. A long-run downward-sloping Phillips curve can exist with perfectly anticipated inflation because workers? incentive to exert effort depend on financial market returns. Consequently, higher inflation rates can reduce wages and stimulate employment. An upward-sloping or vertical Phillips Curve can arise instead, depending on agents? risk aversion and the possibility of capital formation. Welfare might be higher away from the Friedman rule and with a central ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 07-12

Conference Paper
Modeling inflation after the crisis
Watson, Mark W.; Stock, James H. (2010)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
The Intermittent Phillips Curve: Finding a Stable (But Persistence-Dependent) Phillips Curve Model Specification
Verbrugge, Randal; Ashley, Richard (2023-02-14)
We establish that the Phillips curve is persistence-dependent: inflation responds differently to persistent versus moderately persistent (or versus transient) fluctuations in the unemployment rate gap. This persistence-dependent relationship appears to align with business-cycle stages and is thus consistent with existing theory. Previous work fails to model this dependence, thereby finding numerous "inflation puzzles" – e.g., missing inflation/disinflation – noted in the literature. Our specification eliminates these puzzles; for example, the Phillips curve has not weakened, nor was ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-09R2

Working Paper
(Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves
Ahn, Hie Joo; Rudd, Jeremy B. (2024-07-11)
We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of labor market outcomes and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job loss. In order to link our approach with previous theoretical and empirical work, we extend the procedure for estimating a Bayesian sign-restricted VAR so that priors can be directly imposed on the VAR's impact matrix. We find that structural shocks that shift the Beveridge curve have different effects on inflation. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-050

Working Paper
Estimation of forward-looking relationships in closed form: an application to the New Keynesian Phillips curve
Lie, Denny; Gumbau-Brisa, Fabia; Olivei, Giovanni P.; Barnes, Michelle L. (2011)
We illustrate the importance of placing model-consistent restrictions on expectations in the estimation of forward-looking Euler equations. In two-stage limited-information settings where first-stage estimates are used to proxy for expectations, parameter estimates can differ substantially, depending on whether these restrictions are imposed or not. This is shown in an application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), first in a Monte Carlo exercise, and then on actual data. The closed-form (CF) estimates require by construction that expectations of inflation be model-consistent at all ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-3

Working Paper
Declining union strength and wage inflation in the 1980s
Neumark, David (1989)
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 96

Discussion Paper
Anatomy (not Autopsy) of the Phillips Curve
Lenzu, Simone (2026-02-04)
The relationship between inflation and real economic activity has long been central to debates in macroeconomics and monetary policy. At the core of this debate is the Phillips curve (PC), which measures how strongly inflation reacts to movements in economic conditions. The steepness of this curve matters enormously for monetary policy: if the PC is steeper, inflation rises faster during booms and falls faster in recessions, which entails central banks having to act more forcefully if they want to stabilize inflation around their target. Prior analysis found astonishingly small estimates of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20260204

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