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Journal Article
Understanding the Recent Rise in Municipal Bond Yields
Gulati, Chaitri; Dice, Jacob; Bi, Huixin; Marsh, W. Blake (2020-05-27)
In late March, investors sold off municipal bonds at a rapid pace, depressing municipal bond prices and driving up their yields relative to U.S. Treasuries. We find that this initial investor run on the municipal bond market was likely due to increased liquidity demand rather than credit concerns, making the Federal Reserve’s early actions to relieve liquidity stress effective. Going forward, however, municipal bond prices will likely reflect increased credit concerns.
Economic Bulletin , Issue May 27, 2020 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Cell Phone Data Suggest Persistent Differences in Work from Home by Income, Race, and Education during the Pandemic
Kim, Sungil; Cakir Melek, Nida (2021-03-31)
Social-distancing policies to combat the spread of COVID-19 led to an initial spike in work from home. We use high-frequency cell phone geolocation data to assess how work from home has evolved since then. We show that work from home declined as restrictions eased but remains above pre-pandemic levels. In addition, we find that differences across income, race, and education in work from home that emerged with the pandemic persist a year later.
Economic Bulletin , Issue March 31, 2021 , Pages 4

Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period
Bullard, James B. (2020-03-23)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommends declaring a “National Pandemic Adjustment Period” and discusses three broad goals of macroeconomic policy during this period.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Parental Employment at the Onset of the Pandemic: Effects of Lockdowns and Government Policies
Dasgupta, Kabir; Kirkpatrick, Linda; Plum, Alexander (2024-03-22)
The COVID-19 pandemic had disproportionate impacts on women's employment, especially for mothers with school-age and younger children.However, the impacts likely varied depending on the type of policy response adopted by various governments. New Zealand presents a unique policy setting in which one of the strictest lockdown restrictions was combined with a generous wage subsidy scheme to secure employment. We utilize tax records to compare employment patterns of parents from the pandemic period (treatment group) to similar parents from a recent pre-pandemic period (control group). For mothers ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-012

Working Paper
Optimal Management of an Epidemic: Lockdown, Vaccine and Value of Life
Garriga, Carlos; Manuelli, Rodolfo E.; Sanghi, Siddhartha (2022-02-24)
This paper analyzes the optimal management of a pandemic (stay-at-home and vaccination policies) in a dynamic model. The optimal lockdown policies respond to the spread of the virus with significant restrictions to employment, followed by partial loosening before the peak of the epidemic. Upon the availability of a vaccine, the optimal vaccination policy has an almost bang-bang property, despite the loss of immunity of the vaccinated: vaccinate at the highest possible rate, and then rapidly converge to the steady state. The model illustrates interesting trade-offs as it implies that lower ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-046

Briefing
How the COVID-19 Pandemic May Reshape the Digital Payments Landscape
Tran, Thao; Toh, Ying Lei (2020-06-24)
Despite an increase in payments made via online or mobile channels in recent years, many consumers have not yet adopted digital payments. The COVID-19 pandemic may be shifting more consumers toward digital payments, along with industry and legislative initiatives designed to facilitate broader access.
Payments System Research Briefing

Journal Article
Public Transit Rides Out the Pandemic Storm
Sablik, Timothy (2023-01)
The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically reduced transit ridership across the country. Operators across the Fifth District are still figuring out how to adapt.
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 4-7

Journal Article
Cutting-Edge Methods Did Not Improve Inflation Forecasting during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Lusompa, Amaze; Sattiraju, Sai (2022-07-14)
Amaze Lusompa and Sai A. Sattiraju investigate whether innovations in time-varying parameter models led to improved inflation forecasting during the pandemic. They find that despite their promise prior to the pandemic, forecasting innovations did not improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts relative to a baseline time-varying parameter model during the pandemic. Their results suggest that forecasters may need to develop a new class of forecasting models, introduce new forecasting variables, or rethink how they forecast to yield more effective inflation forecasts during extreme events.
Economic Review , Volume 107 , Issue no.3

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