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Capacity utilization-inflation linkages: a cross-country analysis
This paper analyzes whether capacity utilization in manufacturing is a reliable inflation indicator over and above economy-wide indicators of inflationary pressure and examines different theories on the propagation of inflation by testing their implications for the relationship between capacity utilization and inflation. Three mechanisms whereby shocks to manufacturing can impact on inflation are explored: First, direct pressure on producer prices in manufacturing arising from bottlenecks and a slowdown in productivity growth at high operating rates, second, spill-overs of ...
Working Paper
Supply-side sources of inflation: evidence from OECD countries.
We evaluate the merits of the "supply-side" view under which inflation results from sectoral shocks, and compare it with the "classical" view in which inflation results from aggregate factors such as variations in money growth. Using a panel VAR methodology applied to data for 13 GECD countries, we find support for a multi-shock view of inflation: supply-side shocks are statistically significant determinants of inflation, even after taking into account aggregate demand factors. While oil prices are the dominant supply-side influence, other measures such as the skewness of relative price ...
Journal Article
OECD growth
Working Paper
International comparisons of fiscal policy: the OECD and the IMF measures of fiscal impulse
Both the OECD and the IMF periodically estimate and publish measures of fiscal impulse to gauge the extent to which fiscal policy in the major industrial countries has become more or less expansive over time. This paper compares these measures analytically and numerically. The paper shows that the OECD and IMF measures of fiscal impulse differ in at least four fundamental ways: (1) the OECD includes fiscal drag under the presumption that it is part of the "structure" of fiscal policy, while the IMF excludes it from its adjusted measure of the budget balance; (2) the OECD and the IMF both ...
Journal Article
International business cycles: G7 and OECD countries
The progressive globalization of markets has sparked a worldwide interest in using economic indicators to analyze cyclical fluctuations. Governments and the private sector seeking to conduct their activities in light of both national and international economic conditions could benefit from international indicators that serve as a warning system to detect recessions in major economic partners and in industrialized countries as a whole. ; This article constructs just such a warning system. Using a Markov-switching dynamic factor model with a self-adjusting variable-bandwidth filter, the authors ...
Working Paper
Trade in ideas: patenting and productivity in the OECD