Briefing
Why Are Economists Still Uncertain About the Effects of Monetary Policy?
Ho, Paul (2023-05)
Despite decades of research, there remains substantial uncertainty about the quantitative effects of monetary policy. Different models produce conflicting predictions, and these predictions lack precision. This article discusses some reasons for these issues. In addition to the relative lack of data, the structure of the economy has continued to evolve, posing challenges for empirical macroeconomic analysis more generally. Economists have been confronting these challenges by developing tools to jointly consider a range of models and continuing to seek new sources of data.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 15

Conference Paper
Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?
Fratzscher, Marcel; Ehrmann, Michael (2003)
Proceedings

Working Paper
Macroeconomic dynamics near the ZLB: a tale of two equilibria
Schorfheide, Frank; Aruoba, S. Boragan (2013)
This paper studies the dynamics of a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model near the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. In addition to the standard targeted-inflation equilibrium, we consider a deflation equilibrium as well as a Markov sunspot equilibrium that switches between a targeted-inflation and a deflation regime. We use the particle filter to estimate the state of the U.S. economy during and after the 2008-09 recession under the assumptions that the U.S. economy has been in either the targeted-inflation or the sunspot equilibrium. We consider ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-29