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Journal Article
New uses for new macro derivatives
Wolfers, Justin (2006)
Economic forecasters often look to the performance of futures markets to help predict such economic developments as movements in the price of oil and other commodities. In addition, relatively new financial market instruments, like TIPS, help policymakers get a handle on the public's inflation expectations. ; In the last few years, derivatives markets involving bets on future economic events have emerged. In October 2002, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank joined forces to form a market in what they call "Economic Derivatives." More recently, other U.S.-based markets have been created for ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macroeconomic model (commentary)
West, Kenneth D. (2001-07)
Review , Volume 83 , Issue Jul , Pages 83-112

Journal Article
Getting back on track: macroeconomic policy lessons from the financial crisis
Taylor, John B. (2010-05)
This article reviews the role of monetary and fiscal policy in the financial crisis and draws lessons for future macroeconomic policy. It shows that policy deviated from what had worked well in the previous two decades by becoming more interventionist, less rules-based, and less predictable. The policy implications are thus that policy should ?get back on track.? The article is a modified version of a presentation given at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia?s policy forum ?Policy Lessons from the Economic and Financial Crisis,? December 4, 2009. The presentation was made during a panel ...
Review , Volume 92 , Issue May

Working Paper
Money and the transmission mechanism in the optimizing IS-LM specification
Nelson, Edward (2003)
This paper discusses criticisms of the IS-LM framework in the macroeconomic literature of the last 40 years, and how the modern optimizing version of IS-LM addresses those criticisms. It is argued that many of the criticisms had been addressed by best-practice traditional IS-LM. Relative to this traditional setup, the optimizing IS-LM version gives full recognition to the intertemporal nature of households' saving decisions. Like traditional IS-LM, however, the optimizing version remains vulnerable to the monetarist critique: by recognizing an insufficient number of distinct assets, the IS-LM ...
Working Papers , Paper 2003-019

Working Paper
International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation
Nelson, Edward; Kara, Amit (2004)
In this paper we provide international evidence on the issue of whether the optimizing IS equation is more stable than a backward-looking alternative. The international evidence consist of estimates of IS equations on quarterly data for the UK and Australia, both for the full sample of the last 40 years and for the period following major monetary policy shifts in 1979-80. Our results suggest that the parameters in the optimizing IS equations are more empirically stable than those of the backward-looking alternative. The use of dynamic general equilibrium modelling in empirical work does ...
Working Papers , Paper 2003-020

Report
Macro news, risk-free rates, and the intermediary: customer orders for thirty-year Treasury futures
Menkveld, Albert J.; Sarkar, Asani; Van der Wel, Michel (2007)
Customer order flow correlates with permanent price changes in equity and non-equity markets. We examine macro news events in the thirty-year Treasury futures market to identify causality from customer flow to risk-free rates. We remove the positive feedback trading effect and establish that, in the fifteen minutes subsequent to the news, intermediaries rely on customer orders to determine a substantial part of the announcement?s effect on risk-free rates?about one-third relative to the instantaneous effect. Intermediaries appear to benefit from privately observing informed customers, since ...
Staff Reports , Paper 307

Working Paper
Irrational expectations and econometric practice: discussion of Orphanides and Williams, \"Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy\"
Ireland, Peter N. (2003)
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams' excellent conference paper, "Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy," contributes importantly to the new and rapidly growing branch of the literature on bounded rationality and learning in macroeconomics. Their paper, like many others, derives interesting and useful theoretical results that show how the introduction of bounded rationality and learning impacts on the effects of monetary policy shocks and the characteristics of optimal monetary policy rules. This note suggests that some additional empirical work-some "irrational ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-22

Working Paper
Privately optimal contracts and suboptimal outcomes in a model of agency costs
Paustian, Matthias; Fuerst, Timothy S.; Carlstrom, Charles T. (2013)
This paper derives the privately optimal lending contract in the celebrated financial accelerator model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999). The privately optimal contract includes indexation to the aggregate return on capital, household consumption, and the return to internal funds. Although privately optimal, this contract is not welfare maximizing as it leads to a sub-optimally high price of capital. The welfare cost of the privately optimal contract (when compared to the planner outcome) is significant. A menu of time-varying taxes and subsidies can decentralize the planner?s ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1239

Working Paper
Comparative Advantage and Moonlighting
Fuller, David L.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Auray, Stéphane (2021-08)
We document three facts: (i) Higher educated workers are more likely to moonlight; (ii) conditional on education, workers with higher wages are less likely to moonlight; and (iii) the prevalence of moonlighting is declining over time for all education groups. We develop an equilibrium model of the labor market to explain these patterns. A dominating income effect explains the negative correlation of moonlighting with productivity in the cross section and the downward trend over time. A higher part-to-full time pay differential for skilled workers (a comparative advantage) explains the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-016

Report
New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis
Kehoe, Patrick J.; Chari, V. V.; McGrattan, Ellen R. (2008)
Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice; we do not. Focusing on the state-of-the-art version of these models, we argue that some of its shocks and other features are not structural or consistent with microeconomic evidence. Since an accurate structural model is essential to reliably evaluate the effects of policies, we conclude that New Keynesian ...
Staff Report , Paper 409

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