Search Results
Journal Article
Shocked, only not: false positive cases of employment decline
Journal Article
Job shocks: resuscitation or suffocation?
How local economies react after suffering a major decline in employment
Working Paper
Declining job security
Although common belief and recent evidence point to a decline in "job security," the academic literature to date has been noticeably silent regarding the behavioral underpinnings of declining job security. In this paper, I define job security in the context of implicit contracts designed to overcome incentive problems in the employment relationship. Contracts of this nature imply the possibility of inefficient separations in response to adverse shocks, and they generate predictions concerning the relationship between job security parameters-such as worker seniority, aggregate shocks, and ...
Journal Article
Job security update
Report
Using Worker Flows to Assess the Stability of the Early Childcare and Education Workforce, 2010-2022
Turnover is a particular problem among childcare workers and less so among preschool and kindergarten teachers. In 2022, turnover in childcare work was about 65 percent higher than in a typical job, while attrition among preschool and kindergarten teachers was on par with the typical occupation.
Journal Article
Company mass layoffs: the “other” job shock
Journal Article
Are displaced workers now finished at age forty?
In recent years, the media has devoted considerable attention to the effects of downsizing and corporate restructuring on U.S. workers. Economists as well as the media have focused in particular on the plight of laid-off, or "displaced," middle-aged workers. Because many displaced workers incur significant costs, the displacement rate and the effects of displacement on workers are of concern to policymakers. ; The conventional wisdom that middle-aged workers face an increased risk of being displaced and increased difficulties after displacement is partially borne out by this article's ...
Working Paper
Growing old together: firm survival and employee turnover
Labor market outcomes such as turnover and earnings are correlated with employer characteristics, even after controlling for observable differences in worker characteristics. We argue that this systematic relationship constitutes strong evidence in favor of models where workers choose how much to invest in future productivity. Because employer characteristics are correlated with firm survival, returns to these investments vary across firm types. We describe a dynamic general equilibrium model where workers employed in firms more likely to survive choose to devote more time to productivity ...
Journal Article
The cyclicality of hires, separations, and job-to-job transitions
This paper measures the job-finding, separation, and job-to-job transition rates in the United States from 1948 to 2004. The job-finding and job-to-job transition rates are strongly procyclical and the separation rate is nearly acyclical, especially since 1985. The author develops a simple model in which unemployed workers search for jobs and employed workers search for better jobs. The model predicts that an increase in either the job-finding rate or the separation rate raises the job-to-job transition rate, which is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the available evidence. In ...
Working Paper
Employee turnover and regional wage differentials