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Working Paper
Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?
Zakrajšek, Egon; McCarthy, Jonathan (2003)
Despite the recent patch of sluggish growth, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of remarkable stability since the mid-1980s. One popular explanation attributes the diminished variability of economic activity to information-technology-led improvements in inventory management. Our results, however, indicate that the changes in inventory dynamics since the mid-1980s played a reinforcing---rather than a leading---role in the volatility reduction. Movements in the volatility of manufacturing output over the past three decades almost entirely reflect changes in the variability of the growth ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2003-26

Journal Article
Inventories and the recovery
Bennett, Barbara; Klitgaard, Thomas (1983)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Another soft inventory landing?
Allen, Donald S. (1999-12)
National Economic Trends , Issue Dec

Working Paper
Input and output inventories
Maccini, Louis J.; Humphreys, Brad R.; Schuh, Scott (1997)
This paper builds and estimates a new model of firm behavior that includes decisions to order, use, and stock input materials in a stage-of-fabrication environment with either gross production or value added technology. The model extends the traditional linear-quadratic model of output (finished goods) inventories by incorporating delivery and usage of input materials plus input inventory investment - features which largely have been ignored in the literature. Stylized facts indicate that input inventories are empirically more important than output inventories, especially in business cycle ...
Working Papers , Paper 97-7

Speech
Address to the New College class of 2010
Dudley, William (2010)
Remarks at the New College of Florida 44th Annual Commencement, Sarasota, Florida.
Speech , Paper 23

Working Paper
Modeling inventories over the business cycle.
Thomas, Julia K.; Khan, Aubhik (2004)
We search for useful models of aggregate fluctuations with inventories. We focus exclusively on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that endogenously give rise to inventory investment and evaluate two leading candidates: the (S,s) model and the stockout avoidance model. Each model is examined under both technology shocks and preference shocks, and its performance gauged by its ability to explain the observed magnitude of inventories in the U.S. economy, alongside other empirical regularities, such as the procyclicality of inventory investment and its positive correlation with sales. ...
Working Papers , Paper 04-13

Working Paper
Inventories, information purchase, and equilibrium adjustment to aggregate disturbances
Glick, Reuven; Wihlborg, Clas (1986)
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 86-07

Journal Article
Will just-in-time inventory techniques dampen recessions?
Morgan, Donald P. (1991-03)
Economic Review , Volume 76 , Issue Mar , Pages 21-33

Report
Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?
Zakrajšek, Egon; McCarthy, Jonathan (2002)
By historical standards, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of remarkable stability since the mid-1980s. One explanation attributes the diminished variability of economic activity to information-technology-led improvements in inventory management. Our results, however, indicate that the changes in inventory dynamics since the mid-1980s played a reinforcing - rather than a leading - role in the volatility reduction. A decomposition of the reduction in the volatility of manufacturing output shows that it almost entirely reflects a decline in the variance of the growth contribution of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 156

Working Paper
Input and output inventory dynamics
Wen, Yi (2009)
This paper develops an analytically-tractable general-equilibrium model of inventory dynamics based on a precautionary stockout-avoidance motive. The model?s predictions are broadly consistent with the U.S. business cycle and key features of inventory behavior, including (i) a large inventory stock-to-sales ratio and a small inventory investment-to-sales ratio in the long run, (ii) excess volatility of production relative to sales, (iii) procyclical inventory investment but countercyclical stock-to-sales ratio over the business cycle, and (iv) more volatile input inventories than output ...
Working Papers , Paper 2008-008

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