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Working Paper
When do inventories destabilize the economy? an analytical approach to (S,s) policies
Wen, Yi; Wang, Pengfei; Xu, Zhiwei (2011)
Conventional wisdom has it that inventory investment destabilizes the economy because it is procyclical to sales. Khan and Thomas (2007) show that the conventional wisdom is wrong in a general equilibrium (S,s) model with capital. We argue that their finding is not robust?the conventional wisdom can still hold in general equilibrium if firms can adjust output by varying the capacity utilization rate. Our result also holds true if there exist investment adjustment costs. Unlike the existing (S,s) inventory literature that relies on the Krusell-Smith (1998) numerical solution methods, we ...
Working Papers , Paper 2011-014

Journal Article
Did speculation drive oil prices? market fundamentals suggest otherwise
Plante, Michael D.; Yücel, Mine K. (2011)
Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look at evidence from the physical market for oil and conclude that fundamentals, and not speculation, were behind the dramatic rise and fall in oil prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the futures market.
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Speech
Regional economy and manufacturing update
Dudley, William (2010)
Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
Speech , Paper 28

Working Paper
Production smoothing evidence from physical-product data
Krane, Spencer D.; Braun, Steven (1990)
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 103

Working Paper
Market run-ups, market freezes, and leverage
Leitner, Yaron; Bond, Philip (2010)
The authors study trade between a buyer and a seller when both may have existing inventories of assets similar to those being traded. They analyze how these inventories affect trade, information dissemination, and price formation. The authors show that when the buyer's and seller's initial leverage is moderate, inventories increase price and trade volume, but when leverage is high, trade may become impossible (a "market freeze"). Their analysis predicts a pattern of trade in which prices and trade volume first increase, and then markets break down. The authors use their model to discuss ...
Working Papers , Paper 10-36

Journal Article
Inventory time
Burke, William (1975)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Inventory excess?
McElhattan, Rose (1979)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Aggregate dynamics of lumpy agents
Allen, Donald S. (1996)
This paper identifies the criteria for dynamic synchronization of the movement of agents who make intermittent adjustment to inventory stocks, leading to "harmonic resonance" rather than cancellation. I use a discrete Markov process model of (S,s) inventory adjustment to establish a theoretical framework for the aggregate dynamics and use simulations to demonstrate the distribution effects of a discrete model of lumpy behavior. The paper identifies circumstances that lead to increased skewness of the distribution of agents over the inventory interval. This has application in financial, ...
Working Papers , Paper 1996-003

Journal Article
Do inventories moderate fluctuations in output?
Allen, Donald S. (1997-07)
Inventories are widely believed to serve as a buffer stock against unexpected fluctuations in demand, allowing firms to plan production more efficiently. If so, we would expect production to vary less than sales and inventory to move in the opposite direction to sales. However, research finds that production varies more than sales and that there is a positive correlation between changes in inventory and changes in sales. These findings imply that inventories are not being used to smooth production and do not serve as a buffer for uncertain demand. Donald S. Allen examines firm-level data and ...
Review , Issue Jul , Pages 39-50

Working Paper
Staggered prices and inventories: production smoothing reconsidered
Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Hornstein, Andreas (1998)
Working Paper , Paper 98-08

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