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Working Paper
The Well-Being of Nations: Estimating Welfare from International Migration
The limitations of GDP as a measure of welfare are well known. We propose a new method of estimating the well-being of nations. Using gross bilateral international migration flows and a discrete choice model in which everyone in the world chooses a country in which to live, we estimate each country?s overall quality of life. Our estimates, by relying on revealed preference, complement previous estimates of economic well-being that consider only income or a small number of factors, or rely on structural assumptions about how these factors contribute to wellbeing.
Journal Article
Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics
Recent shifts in immigration flows have lowered the estimates of net international migration into the United States. New data indicate that net migration will be close to half a million people in 2025, down from 2.2 million in 2024. Estimates based on these data and on past trends for the U.S.-born population suggest that this could lead to a decrease in the working-age population and slower growth in the prime-age labor force. Continued low levels of immigration would lead to decreases in the total prime-age labor force.