Working Paper
Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures
Craig, Ben R.; Carlson, John B.; Melick, William R. (2005)
This paper demonstrates how options on federal funds futures, which began trading in March 2003, can be used to recover the implied probability density function (PDF) for future Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate outcomes. The discrete nature of the choices made by the FOMC allows for a very straightforward recovery of the implied PDF using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. This simple recovery method stands in contrast to the relatively complicated PDF recovery techniques developed for options written on assets such as equities, foreign exchange, or commodity futures ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0507

Journal Article
Introducing the Kansas City Fed's Measure of Policy Rate Uncertainty (KC PRU)
Bundick, Brent; Smith, Andrew Lee; Van der Meer, Luca (2024-09-26)
Monitoring uncertainty around the future path of interest rates can help ensure that monetary policy is transmitting to the economy as intended. Because uncertainty is not directly observable, measuring uncertainty about the future policy rate can be difficult. Previous measures often face two key limitations. First, they may be released with a lag, making them less useful as a timely measure of policy rate uncertainty. Second, they may not be available over a long sample, making it difficult to compare measures of current uncertainty with historical context.In this article, Brent Bundick, A. ...
Economic Review

Journal Article
Short-term interest rate futures
Kuprianov, Anatoli (1986-09)
An abstract for this article is not available
Economic Review , Volume 72 , Issue Sep , Pages 12-26

Journal Article
Interest rate futures: a challenge for bankers
Keen, Howard (1980-11)
Business Review , Issue Nov , Pages 13-25

Journal Article
Options on short-term interest rate futures
Kuprianov, Anatoli (1986-11)
An abstract for this article is not available
Economic Review , Volume 72 , Issue Nov , Pages 3-11

Working Paper
The information content of forward and futures prices: market expectations and the price of risk
Chernenko, Sergey V. (2004)
Forward and futures rates are frequently used as measures of market expectations. In this paper we apply standard forecast efficiency tests, and some newer exact sign and rank tests, to a wide range of forward and futures rates, and in this way test whether these are in fact rational expectations of future actual prices. The forward and futures rates that we study under a common methodology include foreign exchange forward rates, U.S. and foreign interest rate futures and forward rates, oil futures and natural gas futures. For most, but not all, of these instruments, we find that we can ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 808