Working Paper
What do we know and not know about potential output?
Basu, Susanto; Fernald, John G. (2009)
Potential output is an important concept in economics. Policymakers often use a one-sector neoclassical model to think about long-run growth, and often assume that potential output is a smooth series in the short run--approximated by a medium- or long-run estimate. But in both the short and long run, the one-sector model falls short empirically, reflecting the importance of rapid technical change in producing investment goods; and few, if any, modern macroeconomic models would imply that, at business cycle frequencies, potential output is a smooth series. Discussing these points allows us to ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2009-05

Working Paper
The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time
van Norden, Simon; Orphanides, Athanasios (2004)
A stable predictive relationship between inflation and the output gap, often referred to as a Phillips curve, provides the basis for countercyclical monetary policy in many models. In this paper, we evaluate the usefulness of alternative univariate and multivariate estimates of the output gap for predicting inflation. Many of the ex post output gap measures we examine appear to be quite useful for predicting inflation. However, forecasts using real-time estimates of the same measures do not perform nearly as well. The relative usefulness of real-time output gap estimates diminishes further ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2004-68

Working Paper
Sensitivity of the Chicago Region Econometric Input-Output Model [ CREIM] to alternative sources of interindustry relationships
Mahidhara, Ramamohan; Israilevich, Philip R.; Hewings, Geoffrey J. D.; Schindler, Graham (1995)
Working Paper Series, Regional Economic Issues , Paper 95-16

Working Paper
Endogenous business cycles and the dynamics of output, hours, and consumption
Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie (1998)
This paper studies the business-cycle fluctuations predicted by a two-sector endogenous-business-cycle model with sector-specific external increasing returns to scale. It focuses on aspects of actual fluctuations that have been identified both as defining features of the business cycle and as ones that standard real-business-cycle models cannot explain: the autocorrelation function of output growth, the impulse response function of output to demand shocks, and the forecastable movements of output, hours, and consumption. For empirically realistic calibrations of the degree of sector-specific ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1998-19

Working Paper
Census content of Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output data
Jackson, Randall W.; Israilevich, Philip R.; Comer, Jon (1991)
Working Paper Series, Regional Economic Issues , Paper 91-2

Journal Article
How big is the output gap?
Weidner, Justin; Williams, John C. (2009)
This Economic Letter examines measurement of potential output, focusing on how big the output gap?and the resulting downward pressure on inflation?is today.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Asymmetric adjustments of price and output
Tinsley, Peter A.; Krieger, Reva (1997)
Asymmetries in price adjustment can reconcile contrasts between rapid price movements in inflationary episodes, consistent with classical theories of flexible pricing, and sluggish price responses in contractions, consistent with Keynesian theories of sticky price adjustments. Nonparametric analysis of SIC two-digit industry data indicates that negative asymmetries are more pronounced for real outputs than for nominal outputs, suggesting reversed positive asymmetries in producer pricing. Pricing decision rules are estimated to distinguish between asymmetries in conditioning shocks and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1997-31

Working Paper
The output effects of government consumption: a note
Wynne, Mark A. (1993)
Working Papers , Paper 9320

Working Paper
Construction of input-output coefficients with flexible functional forms
Israilevich, Philip R. (1990)
Working Paper Series, Regional Economic Issues , Paper 90-1

Journal Article
Monetary policy with uncertain estimates of potential output
Kuttner, Kenneth N. (1992-01)
Economic Perspectives , Volume 16 , Issue Jan , Pages 2-15