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Working Paper
What do we know and not know about potential output?
Potential output is an important concept in economics. Policymakers often use a one-sector neoclassical model to think about long-run growth, and often assume that potential output is a smooth series in the short run--approximated by a medium- or long-run estimate. But in both the short and long run, the one-sector model falls short empirically, reflecting the importance of rapid technical change in producing investment goods; and few, if any, modern macroeconomic models would imply that, at business cycle frequencies, potential output is a smooth series. Discussing these points allows us to ...
Working Paper
Forecasting with regional input-output tables
Working Paper
Endogenous business cycles and the dynamics of output, hours, and consumption
This paper studies the business-cycle fluctuations predicted by a two-sector endogenous-business-cycle model with sector-specific external increasing returns to scale. It focuses on aspects of actual fluctuations that have been identified both as defining features of the business cycle and as ones that standard real-business-cycle models cannot explain: the autocorrelation function of output growth, the impulse response function of output to demand shocks, and the forecastable movements of output, hours, and consumption. For empirically realistic calibrations of the degree of sector-specific ...
Journal Article
Monetary policy with uncertain estimates of potential output
Journal Article
Mind the regional output gap
This national outlook masks significant variation among states in their paths to recovery.
Working Paper
Asymmetric adjustments of price and output
Asymmetries in price adjustment can reconcile contrasts between rapid price movements in inflationary episodes, consistent with classical theories of flexible pricing, and sluggish price responses in contractions, consistent with Keynesian theories of sticky price adjustments. Nonparametric analysis of SIC two-digit industry data indicates that negative asymmetries are more pronounced for real outputs than for nominal outputs, suggesting reversed positive asymmetries in producer pricing. Pricing decision rules are estimated to distinguish between asymmetries in conditioning shocks and ...