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Working Paper
Currency ratios and U.S. underground economic activity
Cagan's classic currency ratio suggests that underground economic activity in the U.S. surged starting in 1994. In contrast, we show that a ratio adjusted to take care of two distorting developments -- retail sweep programs and overseas demand for U.S. currency -- did not surge, and that movements in the adjusted ratio owe primarily to the differential effects of interest rates on currency and checkable deposits. As a result, we are skeptical of monetary-based claims that the underground economy has expanded significantly in recent years and believe that any claims that is has must rely on ...
Journal Article
Small business: Cashless society: original style
The age-old tradition of bartering is alive and well.
Working Paper
The policy implications of the underground economy
Working Paper
Quantifying the shadow economy: measurement with theory
We construct a dynamic, general equilibrium model of tax evasion where agents choose to report some of their income. Unreported income requires using a payment method that avoids recordkeeping ? cash. Trade using cash to avoid taxes is the theoretical measure of the shadow economy from our model. We then calibrate our model using money, interest rate and GDP data to back out the size of the shadow economy for a sample of 30 countries and compare our estimates to traditional ad hoc estimates. Our results generate reasonably larger estimates for the size of the shadow economy than exist in ...
Journal Article
The underground economy: a troubling issue for policymakers