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Keywords:Human capital 

Newsletter
What Does Everything Besides the Unemployment Rate Tell Us About Labor Market Tightness?

Between March 2022 and June 2023, the unemployment rate, the most commonly used gauge of labor market tightness, remained in a narrow range between 3.4% and 3.7%. Yet, over this period, nominal wage growth increased to unusually high levels and then moderated, though it remains at a historically high rate. The disparity between a relatively constant unemployment rate and large movements in nominal wage growth has led to a divide in public discourse, with some seeing low unemployment and strong wage growth as a sufficient sign of the strength of the labor market and others concerned that the ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Volume no 491 , Pages 7

Working Paper
Determinants of long-run labor productivity growth: a selective survey with some new empirical results

Using cross-country data, we review the empirical evidence concerning long-term labor and total factor productivity growth. We find that the conclusions one can draw from cross-country data are surprisingly modest. Nevertheless, we confirm the crucial role for physical capital accumulation in enhancing labor productivity growth and develop a role for human capital in an endogenous growth framework. We also find that the performances of so-called "ancillary variables" are rather insignificant in the presence of proxies for physical and human capital stocks.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-17

Speech
Regional economy and manufacturing update

Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
Speech , Paper 28

Working Paper
Neighborhood dynamics and the distribution of opportunity

This paper uses an overlapping-generations dynamic general equilibrium model of residential sorting and intergenerational human capital accumulation to investigate effects of neighborhood externalities. In the model, households choose where to live and how much to invest toward the production of their child?s human capital. The return on the parent?s investment is determined in part by the child?s ability and in part by an externality from the average human capital in their neighborhood. We use the model to test a prominent hypothesis about the concentration of poverty within ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1212

Journal Article
Explaining the growing inequality in wages across skill levels

This article investigates two prominent explanations--technology and trade--for growing wage inequality by educational attainment. The analysis indicates a prominent role for technological improvements and a modest but still significant role for increased competition from imports.
Economic Policy Review , Issue Jan , Pages 61-75

Working Paper
Do localization economies derive from human capital externalities?

One of the most robust findings emerging from studies of industrial agglomeration is the rise in productivity that tends to accompany it. What most studies have not addressed, however, is the potential role played by human capital externalities in driving this relationship. This paper seeks to do so using data from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 US Census covering a collection of 77 (primarily) 3-digit manufacturing industries across a sample of more than 200 metropolitan areas. The analysis generates two primary results. First, a variety of education- and experience-based measures of average human ...
Working Papers , Paper 2005-015

Working Paper
Alternatives in human capital accumulation: implications for economic growth

This paper demonstrates that considering alternative means of human capital accumulation, such as learning-by-doing, overturns the presumption that formal education is unconditionally beneficial for economic growth. It analyzes a model in which the average level of human capital creates externalities in future human capital accumulation and individuals can augment their human capital with work experience or education. The model shows that in the early stages of development, education enhances growth by creating a positive externality, and, in later stages, it may depress growth by leading to ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 550

Working Paper
Who Values Access to College?

A first glance at US data suggests that college -- given its mean returns and sharply subsidized cost for all enrollees -- could be of great value to most. Using an empirically-disciplined human capital model that allows for variation in college readiness, we show otherwise. While the top decile of valuations is indeed large (40 percent of consumption), nearly half of high school completers place zero value on access to college. Subsidies to college currently flow to those already best positioned to succeed and least sensitive to them. Even modestly targeted alternatives may therefore improve ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-015

Conference Paper
Migration, trade, capital, and development: substitutes, complements, and policies

The economic migration of people has lagged substantially behind that of capital and trade. That's largely because barriers to the movement of people remain high. Pressures for enhanced migration are rising, certainly in the less-developed origin (O) countries but also in some quarters of the more developed destination (D)countries. Migration presents the largest opportunity for additional global welfare gains. ; We will focus on migration and its interactions with the other elements of globalization as they impact development. In this context, we will find it useful to distinguish between ...
Proceedings

Working Paper
A Day Late and a Dollar Short : Liquidity and Household Formation among Student Borrowers

The federal government encourages human capital investment through lending and grant programs, but resources from these programs may also finance non-education activities for students whose liquidity is otherwise restricted. This paper explores this possibility, using administrative data for the universe of federal student loan borrowers linked to tax records. We examine the effects of a sharp discontinuity in program limits?generated by the timing of a student borrower?s 24th birthday?on household formation early in the lifecycle. After demonstrating that this discontinuity induces a jump in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-025

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