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Working Paper
House price growth when kids are teenagers: a path to higher intergenerational achievement?
Cooper, Daniel H.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose (2011)
This paper examines whether rising house prices immediately prior to children entering their college years impacts their intergenerational earnings mobility and/or educational outcomes. Higher house prices provide homeowners, especially liquidity constrained ones, with additional funding to invest in their children's human capital. The results show that a 1 percentage point increase in house prices, when children are 17-years-old, results in roughly 0.8 percent higher annual income for the children of homeowners, and 1.2 percent lower annual income for the children of renters. Additional ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-6

Report
Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions
Himmelberg, Charles P.; Mayer, Christopher J.; Sinai, Todd (2005)
We construct measures of the annual cost of single-family housing for 46 metropolitan areas in the United States over the last 25 years and compare them with local rents and incomes as a way of judging the level of housing prices. Conventional metrics like the growth rate of house prices, the price-to-rent ratio, and the price-to-income ratio can be misleading because they fail to account both for the time series pattern of real long-term interest rates and predictable differences in the long-run growth rates of house prices across local markets. These factors are especially important in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 218

Journal Article
House prices and subprime mortgage delinquencies
Krainer, John; Doms, Mark; Furlong, Frederick T. (2007)
In this Economic Letter, we explore how the pace of and change in house-price appreciation can affect the incentives and opportunities for borrowers in a market to avoid delinquencies and foreclosures. For instance, with likely gains in home equity in markets where house prices have risen significantly, a homeowner should have greater incentives and opportunities to keep a mortgage loan current. Indeed, we show that markets that recently experienced greater house-price appreciation tended to have lower delinquency rates and smaller increases in delinquency rates. We also find that ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Housing, consumption, and credit constraints
Lehnert, Andreas (2004)
I test the credit-market effects of housing wealth shocks by estimating the consumption elasticity of house price shocks among households in different age quintiles. Younger households face faster expected income growth and hence would like to borrow more than older households. I estimate consumption elasticities from housing wealth by age quintile to be {4; 0; 3; 8; 3} percent. As predicted by theory, the youngest group has a higher elasticity of consumption than the next two age quintiles. That the consumption of the age quintile on the verge of retirement is responsive to housing wealth is ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2004-63

Journal Article
The housing price is right
Sullivan, Colbey (2004-11)
District housing prices are rising overall, but metros depict different pictures.
Fedgazette , Volume 16 , Issue Nov , Pages 9-11

Working Paper
The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates
Martin, Robert F. (2005)
This paper explores the baby boom's impact on U.S. house prices and interest rates in the post-war 20th century and beyond. Using a simple Lucas asset pricing model, I quantitatively account for the increase in real house prices, the path of real interest rates, and the timing of low-frequency fluctuations in real house prices. The model predicts that the primary force underlying the evolution of real house prices is the systematic and predictable changes in the working age population driven by the baby boom. The model is calibrated to U.S. data and tested on international data. One ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 847

Speech
The national and regional economic outlook
Dudley, William (2011)
Remarks before the Bronx Chamber of Commerce at the New York Botanical Garden, Bronx, New York.
Speech , Paper 68

Working Paper
House Prices, Expectations, and Time-Varying Fundamentals
Lansing, Kevin J.; Gelain, Paolo (2013)
We investigate the behavior of the equilibrium price-rent ratio for housing in a standard asset pricing model. We allow for time-varying risk aversion (via external habit formation) and time-varying persistence and volatility in the stochastic process for rent growth, consistent with U.S. data for the period 1960 to 2011. Under fully-rational expectations, the model significantly underpredicts the volatility of the U.S. price-rent ratio for reasonable levels of risk aversion. We demonstrate that the model can approximately match the volatility of the price-rent ratio in the data if ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-03

Journal Article
Residential investment over the real estate cycle
Krainer, John (2006)
Much attention recently has been given to the possibility of a slowdown in the U.S. residential real estate market. While real residential investment has continued to grow and existing house prices have held up through the first quarter of 2006, analysts have pointed to other signs of slowing. Two commonly cited indicators are an apparent slowing of sales of new and existing homes and a buildup of inventories of new homes in many markets. In this Economic Letter, I characterize past episodes of residential investment downturns and evaluate how specific housing market variables, such as sales ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Mortgage, construction, and real estate markets
anonymous (1971-03)
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Mar

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