Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Conference Paper
Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience
Bordo, Michael D.; Bergman, U. Michael; Jonung, Lars (1998-06)
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 42 , Issue Jun , Pages 65-119

Conference Paper
Cross-country variations in national economic growth rates: the role of \\"technology\\"
DeLong, J. Bradford (1996-06)
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 40 , Issue Jun , Pages 127-172

Conference Paper
The inflation/output variability trade-off revisited
Taylor, John B. (1994)
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 38 , Pages 21-24

Journal Article
An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors
Schuh, Scott (2001)
Despite a significant decline in the pace of economic growth in the second half of 2000, macroeconomic forecasters underpredicted real GDP growth and overpredicted the unemployment rate by a significant amount, for the fifth consecutive year. On average, real GDP forecasts were about 2 percentage points below the actual data for the 1996-2000 period, and unemployment rate forecasts about 0.5 percentage point above. On a more positive note, forecasters ended their chronic overprediction of inflation during much of this period. Nevertheless, surprisingly large and persistent errors in recent ...
New England Economic Review

Journal Article
What's in a number? : the investment boom isn't quite what it seems
Browne, Lynn E. (2000-07)
Regional Review , Volume 10 , Issue Q3 , Pages 3-4

Working Paper
Inventory investment and output volatility
Irvine, F. Owen; Schuh, Scott (2002)
This paper reports the results of a detailed examination of the hypothesis that improved inventory management and production techniques are responsible for the decline in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth. Our innovations are to look at the data at a finer level of disaggregation than previous studies, to exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity to obtain clearer identification of this hypothesis, and to provide a complete accounting of the change in GDP volatility. Changes in inventory behavior can account directly for only up to half of the total reduction in GDP volatility. Cross-section ...
Working Papers , Paper 02-6

Working Paper
Interest sensitivity and volatility reductions: cross-section evidence
Irvine, F. Owen; Schuh, Scott (2005)
As has been widely observed, the volatility of GDP has declined since the mid-1980s compared with prior years. One leading explanation for this decline is that monetary policy improved significantly in the later period. We utilize a cross-section of 2-digit manufacturing and trade industries to further investigate this explanation. Since a major channel through which monetary policy operates is variation in the federal funds rate, we hypothesized that industries that are more interest sensitive should have experienced larger declines in the variance of their outputs in the post-1983 period. ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-4

Working Paper
Sales persistence and the reductions in GDP volatility
Irvine, F. Owen (2004)
A number of explanations for the observed decline in GDP volatility since the mid-1980s have been offered. Valerie Ramey and Daniel Vine (2003a, 2003b) in a couple of recent papers offer the hypothesis that a decline in the persistence of sales is an explanation for the decline in GDP volatility. Their models show that a decrease in sales persistence leads to a decline in the variance of production relative to the variance of sales. They provide econometric evidence that the persistence of unit automobile sales has declined at both the aggregate and model level. This paper explores reasons ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-5

Working Paper
Fiscal retrenchment and the level of economic activity
Olivei, Giovanni P. (1999)
I analyze the effects of an expected future reduction in government spending on the current level of economic activity. In a closed-economy dynamic general equilibrium setup with nominal rigidities, it is shown that expected future cuts in government spending generate an increase in current GDP. Nominal rigidities are an essential feature for the emergence of such a result. With perfect flexible prices but in an otherwise identical setup, an expected future decline in government spending entails no increase in the current level of economic activity.
Working Papers , Paper 99-3

Working Paper
Technological diversification
Tenreyro, Silvana; Koren, Miklos (2004)
Why is GDP so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? To answer this question, we propose a theory of technological diversification. Production makes use of different input varieties, which are subject to imperfectly correlated shocks. As in endogenous growth models, technological progress increases the number of varieties, raising average productivity. The new insight is that an expansion in the number of varieties also lowers the volatility of output. This is because additional varieties provide diversification benefits against variety-specific shocks. In the model, ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-1

show more (2)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY YEAR

FILTER BY BANK

FILTER BY SERIES

FILTER BY CONTENT TYPE

FILTER BY AUTHOR

FILTER BY JEL CLASSIFICATION