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Discussion Paper
Can Lessons from the Great Recession Guide Policy Responses to the Pandemic-Driven Economic Crisis?
Oates, Jane; Van Horn, Carl (2020-06-16)
In a 1948 speech to the British House of Commons, Winston Churchill warned, "Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it." As the U.S. economy struggles to reopen safely and recover, what are the lessons from the Great Recession that might help guide how policymakers respond to the pandemic-driven economic crisis?1 What should we expect over the coming months and years as the nation struggles to restore its economy, which before the pandemic had finally achieved historically low unemployment levels? In June 2020, there is much that we do not know or would even attempt to ...
Workforce Currents , Paper 2020-05

Working Paper
Firm Exit and Liquidity: Evidence from the Great Recession
Leibovici, Fernando; Wiczer, David (2024-09-23)
This paper studies the role of credit constraints in accounting for the dynamics of firm exit during the Great Recession. We present novel firm-level evidence on the role of credit constraints on exit behavior during the Great Recession. Firms in financial distress, with tighter access to credit, are more likely to default than firms with more access to credit. This difference widened substantially in the Great Recession while, in contrast, default rates did not vary much by size, age, or productivity. We identify conditions under which standard models of firms subject to financial frictions ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 13

Journal Article
The State of States’ Unemployment in the Fourth District
Treanor, Caitlin; Vecchio, Christopher; Tasci, Murat (2017-01)
Unemployment rates vary across individual US states at any point in time and respond to business-cycle fluctuations differently. Evaluating what constitutes a ?normal? level for the unemployment rate at the state level is not easy, but it is an important issue for policymakers. We introduce a framework that enables us to calculate the normal unemployment rate for each of the four states in the Fourth District and compare that rate to the national normal rate. We conclude that these states and the District as a whole have very little labor market slack left from the Great Recession.
Economic Commentary , Issue January

Journal Article
Labor Market Tightness across the United States since the Great Recession
Tasci, Murat; Treanor, Caitlin (2018-01-16)
Though labor market statistics are often reported and discussed at the national level, conditions can vary quite a bit across individual states. We explore differences in these conditions before and after the Great Recession using a ratio of the number of unemployed workers to job vacancies. We show that the intensity of the adverse effects of the recession and the strength of the recovery varied geographically at all points in the process. We also demonstrate that wage growth is delayed until the ratio of unemployed workers to job vacancies returns to prerecession levels.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2018 , Issue 01 , Pages 6

Speech
The Economic Outlook and Some Longer-Run Issues 05-18-2017 Economic Club of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
Mester, Loretta J. (2017-05-18)
Today, I will discuss my current outlook for the economy and my views on monetary policy. I will also talk about some longer-run issues facing the economy. Of course, these are my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. The economic expansion will celebrate its eighth birthday next month ? that?s 56 in dog years ? which is long by historical standards. Of course, expansions don?t die from old age and there is no reason to think that this one cannot continue. In fact, one of my focuses as a monetary policymaker is ...
Speech , Paper 83

Working Paper
The Rise and Fall of Consumption in the 2000s
Demyanyk, Yuliya; Hryshko, Dmytro; Luengo-Prado, María Jose; Sorensen, Bent E. (2015-05-21)
U.S. consumption has gone through steep ups and downs since the turn of the millennium, but the causes of these fluctuations are still imperfectly identified. We quantify the relative impact on consumption growth of income, unemployment, house prices, credit scores, debt, expectations, foreclosures, inequality, and refinancings for four subperiods: the ?dot-com recession? (2001-2003), the ?subprime boom? (2004-2006), the Great Recession (2007-2009), and the ?tepid recovery? (2010-2012). We document that the explanatory power of different factors varies by subperiods, implying that a ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1507

Working Paper
Opioids and the Labor Market
Aliprantis, Dionissi; Schweitzer, Mark E. (2018-05-15)
This paper finds evidence that opioid availability decreases labor force participation while a large labor market shock does not influence the share of opioid abusers. We first identify the effect of availability on participation using the geographic variation in opioid prescription rates. We use a combination of the American Community Survey (ACS) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) county-level prescription data to examine labor market patterns across both rural and metropolitan areas of the United States from 2007 to 2016. Individuals in areas with higher prescription ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1807

Working Paper
Opioids and the Labor Market
Aliprantis, Dionissi; Schweitzer, Mark E.; Fee, Kyle (2022-07-14)
This paper quantifies the relationship between local opioid prescription rates and labor market outcomes in the United States between 2006 and 2016. To understand this relationship at the national level, we assemble a data set that allows us both to include rural areas and to estimate the relationship at a disaggregated level. We control for geographic variation in both short-term and long-term economic conditions. In our preferred specification, a 10 percent higher local prescription rate is associated with a lower prime-age labor force participation rate of 0.53 percentage points for men ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-07R3

Working Paper
Opioids and the Labor Market
Aliprantis, Dionissi; Schweitzer, Mark E.; Fee, Kyle (2019-11-15)
This paper studies the relationship between local opioid prescription rates and labor market outcomes for prime-age men and women between 2006 and 2016. We estimate the relationship at the most disaggregated level feasible in the American Community Survey in order to provide estimates that include rural areas that have, in some cases, seen particularly high prescription rates. Given the limited time period, it is particularly important to account for geographic variation in both short-term and long-term economic conditions. We estimate three panel models to control for evolving local economic ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-07R2

Working Paper
Opioids and the Labor Market
Aliprantis, Dionissi; Schweitzer, Mark E.; Fee, Kyle (2019-03-01)
This paper studies the relationship between local opioid prescription rates and labor market outcomes. We improve the joint measurement of labor market outcomes and prescription rates in the rural areas where nearly 30 percent of the US population lives. We find that increasing the local prescription rate by 10 percent decreases the prime-age employment rate by 0.50 percentage points for men and 0.17 percentage points for women. This effect is larger for white men with less than a BA (0.70 percentage points) and largest for minority men with less than a BA (1.01 percentage points). Geography ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-07R

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