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Keywords:Great Depression 

Working Paper
Trade, Relative Prices, and the Canadian Great Depression

Canadian GNP per capita fell by roughly a third between 1928 and 1933. Although the decline and the slow recovery of GNP resemble the American Great Depression, trade was more important in Canada, as exports and imports each accounted for roughly a quarter of Canadian GNP in 1928. The fall in the trade share of GNP of roughly 30 percent between 1928 and 1933 was accompanied by a decline of over 20 percent in the relative prices of exports and imports relative to nontraded goods. We develop a three-sector small open economy model, where wages in the nontraded and import competing sectors ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1606

Working Paper
Sovereign Default in the US

In the absence of a judicial mechanism to reduce the debt burden of a sovereign member of our Union, the resolution process can be quick but perhaps too indifferent to the health, safety, and welfare of the affected residents. In this paper, I use evidence from the Arkansas state archives to provide a description of the events surrounding the default of the state in 1933. I examine the evolution of the negotiations, the outcomes, and the role of fiscal policy.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1609

Journal Article
Ben Bernanke: Solving a Crisis, Changing the Fed

Ben Bernanke’s contributions to economic thinking have been vast, from his extensive study of the Great Depression to groundbreaking research on the interplay of finance and the macroeconomy and the usefulness of unconventional monetary policy tools. His research helped guide his tenure as Federal Reserve Chair and his role in putting the U.S. economy on a path to the longest expansion in its history. Through that role, he also built a better and more transparent Fed for the future. The following remarks are adapted from a presentation by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president, ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 02 , Pages 7

Speech
Modern recipes for financial crises

Remarks at the University of Iowa, December 4, 2015.
Speech , Paper 190

Working Paper
Financial Failure and Depositor Quality: Evidence from Building and Loan Associations in California

Flightiness, or depositor sensitivity to liquidity needs, can be an important determinant of financial distress. I leverage institutional differences that attract depositors with varying flightiness across building and loan associations in California during the Great Depression. A new type of plan, the Dayton plan, involved less restrictive savings plans and lower withdrawal penalties. Dayton plans in California were more likely to close during the Great Depression. Archival evidence on lending rates and returns supports the flightiness mechanism.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1354

How to Achieve a V-Shaped Recovery amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

Contrasting the Great Depression and Great Recession recoveries helps show how GDP levels and growth rates can respond to different levels of policy responses.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
The Value of Opacity in a Banking Crisis

During moments of heightened economic uncertainty, authorities often need to decide on how much information to disclose. For example, during crisis periods, we often observe regulators limiting access to bank‑level information with the goal of restoring the public's confidence in banks. Thus, information management often plays a central role in ending financial crises. Despite the perceived importance of managing information about individual banks during a financial crisis, we are not aware of any empirical work that quantifies the effect of such policies. In this blog post, we highlight ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200402

Working Paper
A Historical Welfare Analysis of Social Security: Whom Did the Program Benefit?

A well-established result in the literature is that Social Security tends to reduce steady state welfare in a standard life cycle model. However, less is known about the historical effects of the program on agents who were alive when the program was adopted. In a computational life cycle model that simulates the Great Depression and the enactment of Social Security, this paper quantifies the welfare effects of the program's enactment on the cohorts of agents who experienced it. In contrast to the standard steady state results, we find that the adoption of the original Social Security tended ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-92

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