Search Results
Working Paper
Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble
This paper explores the link between the house-price expectations of mortgage lenders and the extent of subprime lending. It argues that bubble conditions in the housing market are likely to spur subprime lending, with favorable price expectations easing the default concerns of lenders and thus increasing their willingness to extend loans to risky borrowers. Since the demand created by subprime lending feeds back onto house prices, such lending also helps to fuel an emerging housing bubble. The paper, however, focuses on the reverse causal linkage, where subprime lending is a consequence ...
Working Paper
The great trade collapse of 2008-2009: an inventory adjustment?
This paper examines the role of inventories in the decline of production, trade, and expenditures in the US in the economic crisis of late 2008 and 2009. Empirically, the authors show that international trade declined more drastically than trade-weighted production or absorption and there was a sizeable inventory adjustment. This is most clearly evident for autos, the industry with the largest drop in trade. However, relative to the magnitude of the US downturn, these movements in trade are quite typical. The authors develop a two-country general equilibrium model with endogenous inventory ...
Speech
The U.S., Mexican, and border economies
Remarks before a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Community Luncheon, Laredo, Texas, September 10, 2007. ; "It is fair to say that I am encouraged by what I have heard against a background of constant negative speculation and the occasional discordant note, such as last week's employment numbers. Our economy appears to be weathering the storm thus far. The future path of that storm and the appropriate policy course, however, are still to be determined."
Working Paper
Did bankruptcy reform cause mortgage default rates to rise?
This paper argues that the U.S. bankruptcy reform of 2005 played an important role in the mortgage crisis and the current recession. When debtors file for bankruptcy, credit card debt and other types of debt are discharged - thus loosening debtors' budget constraints. Homeowners in financial distress can therefore use bankruptcy to avoid losing their homes, since filing allows them to shift funds from paying other debts to paying their mortgages. But a major reform of U.S. bankruptcy law in 2005 raised the cost of filing and reduced the amount of debt that is discharged. The authors argue ...
Discussion Paper
The role of banks in the transmission of monetary policy
The transmission of monetary policy, especially in light of recent events, has received increased attention, especially with respect to the efficacy of the bank lending channel. This paper summarizes the issues associated with isolating the bank lending channel and determining the extent to which it is operational. Evidence on the effectiveness of the bank lending channel is presented, both in the United States and abroad. The paper then provides observations about the likely consequences for the effectiveness of the lending channel of the changes in the financial environment associated with ...
Speech
Convertible securities and bankruptcy reforms: addressing too big to fail and reducing the fragility of the financial system : a speech at the Conference on the Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System, New York, NY, June 16, 2010
Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia> Conference on the Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System, New York, NY, June 16, 2010>
Working Paper
Surveying the aftermath of the storm: changes in family finances from 2007 to 2009
In 2009, the Federal Reserve Board implemented a survey of families that participated in the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) to gain detailed information on the effects of the recent recession on all types of households. Using data from the 2007-09 SCF panel, we highlight the variation in households' financial experiences by examining the distribution of changes in families' balance sheets. Further, we use information on changes in families' saving, investing, and spending behavior to consider the potential longer-term consequences of the current recession on households' finances and ...
Speech
The egocentricity of the present (prefaced by the tale of Ruth and Emma)
"In building the bridge to restore financial order and efficiency, my primary interest is to do the minimum necessary to get the job done. And no more. In so doing, my hope is that we restore the long-term faith of the millions of risk takers who make our economy so mighty." ; Remarks before a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Community Forum, San Antonio, Texas, April 9, 2008.
Speech
The Great Recession
Presented on September 10, 2010 at Bentley University to the Financial Planning Association of Massachusetts.
Journal Article
Texas economy shakes off rough ride in 2009
While conditions remain weak, it appears that the Texas economy is on a steadier course after a rough ride last year. Recent economic data and anecdotal evidence suggest the worst of the state's economic woes may be over. Activity is growing in several sectors. The state maintains its traditional advantages--relatively low living costs, modest taxes, a central location and an attractive business climate. Barring further setbacks, the Texas economy should pick up steam in 2010 and beyond.