Search Results
Journal Article
The optimum quantity of money
A central premise of monetary policy in the U.S. throughout the first decade of the 21st century has been a firm commitment to avoid deflation. Indeed, it is the consensus view of policymakers and most economists. Nonetheless, Nobel laureate Milton Friedman proposed that optimal monetary policy should lead to a steady rate of deflation. For some economists, the Friedman rule is mainly a benchmark for thinking clearly about the assumptions underlying our models and a systematic guide for deciding how to modify our models, that is, a way of making scientific progress. However, it is not an ...
Journal Article
Friedman and Taylor on monetary policy rules: a comparison
The names Milton Friedman and John Taylor are associated with different monetary policy rules; but, as shown in this paper, the difference between their perceptions of how the economy works is not great. The monetary policy rules advanced by Taylor and Friedman are compared by linking the rules to the two economists' underlying views about nominal rigidity, the source of trade-offs, the sources of shocks, and model uncertainty. Taylor and Friedman both emphasized Phillips curve specifications that impose temporary nominal price rigidity and the long-run natural-rate restriction; and they ...
Report
Monetary policy implementation frameworks: a comparative analysis
We compare two stylized frameworks for the implementation of monetary policy. The first framework relies only on standing facilities, and the second one relies only on open market operations. We show that the Friedman rule cannot be implemented in the first framework, but can be implemented using the second framework. However, for a given rate of inflation, we show that the first framework unambiguously achieves higher welfare than the second one. We conclude that an optimal system of monetary policy implementation should contain elements of both frameworks. Our results also suggest that any ...
Journal Article
Milton Friedman and U.S. monetary history: 1961-2006
This paper, using extensive archival material from several countries, brings together scattered information about Milton Friedman's views and predictions regarding U.S. monetary policy developments after 1960 (i.e., the period beyond that covered by his and Anna Schwartz's Monetary History of the United States). The author evaluates these interpretations and predictions in light of subsequent events.
Working Paper
An econometric analysis of UK money demand in MONETARY TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz
This paper evaluates an empirical model of UK money demand developed by Friedman and Schwartz in Monetary Trends... .Testing reveals mis-specification and hence the potential for an improved model. Using recursive procedures on their annual data, we obtain a better-fitting, constant, dynamic error-correction (cointegration) model. Results on exogeneity and encompassing imply that our money-demand model is interpretable as a model of money but not of prices since its constancy holds only conditional on contemporaneous prices.
Working Paper
The Taylor rule and the transformation of monetary policy
This paper examines the intellectual history of the Taylor Rule and its considerable influence on macroeconomic research and monetary policy. The paper traces the historical antecedents to the Taylor rule, emphasizing the contributions of three prominent advocates of rules--Henry Simons, A.W. H. Phillips, and Milton Friedman. The paper then examines the evolution of John Taylor's thinking as an academic and policy advisor leading up to his formulation of the Taylor rule. Finally, the paper documents the influence of the Taylor rule on macroeconomic research and the Federal Reserve's conduct ...
Journal Article
Milton Friedman; economist as public intellectual
Working Paper
The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis
The authors evaluate the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis--that a more accommodative monetary policy could have greatly reduced the severity of the Great Depression. To do this, they first estimate a dynamic, general equilibrium model using data from the 1920s and 1930s. Although the model includes eight shocks, the story it tells about the Great Depression turns out to be a simple and familiar one. The contraction phase was primarily a consequence of a shock that induced a shift away from privately intermediated liabilities, such as demand deposits and liabilities that resemble equity, and ...
Speech
Milton and money stock control
Milton Friedman Luncheon, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, Mo., July 31, 2007