Search Results
Journal Article
The sources of the growth slowdown
Conference Paper
Interest rate operating procedures of foreign central banks
Journal Article
Designation of a primary dealer from a foreign country
Working Paper
Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland
This article deals with using panel data to infer regime changes that are common to all of the cross section. The methods presented here apply to Markov switching vector autoregressions, dynamic factor models with Markov switching and other multivariate Markov switching models. The key feature we seek to add to these models is to permit cross-sectional units to have different weights in the calculation of regime probabilities. We apply our approach to estimating a business cycle chronology for the 50 U.S. States and the Euro area, and we compare results between country-specific weights and ...
Journal Article
The lesson of Poincaré
Journal Article
France sliding into recession as new government takes power
Working Paper
An Analysis of Revenues at the Comédie française, 1680-1793
I study the business practices of the Comdie franaise, the main theater in Paris, between 1680 and 1793. The theater was an actors? partnership and operated within a (contested) oligopoly. Newly available data provide revenues by price category for over 32,000 performances. Attendance varied considerably from one performance to the next. Total revenues increased in the second half of the 18th century as demand for entertainment in Paris boomed. The increase came in part from box rentals (by performance or by season). Pricing practices changed over time, as premium pricing for high-demand ...
Working Paper
Emigration during the French Revolution: Consequences in the Short and Longue Durée
During the French Revolution, more than 100,000 individuals, predominantly supporters of the Old Regime, fled France. As a result, some areas experienced a significant change in the composition of the local elites whereas in others the pre-revolutionary social structure remained virtually intact. In this study, we trace the consequences of the migrs flight on economic performance at the local level. We instrument emigration intensity with local temperature shocks during an inflection point of the Revolution, the summer of 1792, marked by the abolition of the constitutional monarchy and bouts ...