Search Results
Working Paper
Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland
This article deals with using panel data to infer regime changes that are common to all of the cross section. The methods presented here apply to Markov switching vector autoregressions, dynamic factor models with Markov switching and other multivariate Markov switching models. The key feature we seek to add to these models is to permit cross-sectional units to have different weights in the calculation of regime probabilities. We apply our approach to estimating a business cycle chronology for the 50 U.S. States and the Euro area, and we compare results between country-specific weights and ...
Working Paper
Expenditures, Earnings, and Net Worth of the Comédie Française, 1723–1793
I study the expenditures of the Comédie française from 1759 to 1793 and the company’s debt from 1723 to 1793. Expenditures were well controlled and changes in venues account for their increase over time. The debt, however, was less controlled, because of the company’s partnership structure and the incentives it created for actors to compensate with debt any shortfall in income due to low tickets sales or delayed payments from the king. I analyze the debt instruments used and the social background of the lenders. I also study the total income of individual actors and the earnings profile ...
Journal Article
France sliding into recession as new government takes power
Journal Article
The effectiveness of tax amnesty programs in selected countries
Journal Article
The lesson of Poincaré
Journal Article
International Influences on U.S. Inflation
The COVID-19 inflation surge experienced abroad undoubtedly left its mark on U.S. inflation. As global economies return to business as usual, it is natural to ask whether international considerations continue to affect U.S. inflation. Recent analysis shows that, although in normal times the international component of U.S. inflation is usually small, at other times it can contribute significantly to U.S. inflation dynamics.
Working Paper
An Analysis of Revenues at the Comédie française, 1680-1793
I study the business practices of the Comdie franaise, the main theater in Paris, between 1680 and 1793. The theater was an actors? partnership and operated within a (contested) oligopoly. Newly available data provide revenues by price category for over 32,000 performances. Attendance varied considerably from one performance to the next. Total revenues increased in the second half of the 18th century as demand for entertainment in Paris boomed. The increase came in part from box rentals (by performance or by season). Pricing practices changed over time, as premium pricing for high-demand ...