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Keywords:Foreign exchange 

Journal Article
Derivative markets and competitiveness

Economic Perspectives , Volume 16 , Issue Jul

Journal Article
The Federal Reserve's foreign exchange swap lines

The financial crisis that began in August 2007 disrupted U.S. dollar funding markets not only in the United States but also overseas. To address funding pressures internationally, the Federal Reserve introduced a system of reciprocal currency arrangements, or "swap lines," with other central banks. The swap line program, which ended early this year, enhanced the ability of these central banks to provide U.S. dollar funding to financial institutions in their jurisdictions.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 16 , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Explaining trading volume in foreign exchange: lessons from Tokyo

FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Predictability in international asset returns: a reexamination

This paper argues that inferring long-horizon asset-return predictability from the properties of vector autoregressive (VAR) models on relatively short spans of data is potentially unreliable. We illustrate the problems that can arise by re-examining the findings of Bekaert and Hodrick (1992), who detected evidence of in-sample predictability in international equity and foreign exchange markets using VAR methodology for a variety of countries over the period 1981-1989. The VAR predictions are significantly biased in most out-of-sample forecasts and are conclusively outperformed by a simple ...
Working Papers , Paper 1997-010

Working Paper
Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles

There are two unresolved puzzles in the empirical foreign exchange literature. The first is the finding that tests of forward rate unbiasedness using the forward rate and forward premium equations yield markedly different conclusions. A companion puzzle - the forward premium puzzle - is the fact that the forward premium incorrectly predicts the direction of the subsequent change in the spot rate, which implies a massive rejection of uncovered interest parity. This paper resolves both puzzles.
Working Papers , Paper 2007-014

Working Paper
Sterilized intervention, nonsterilized intervention, and monetary policy

Sterilized intervention is generally ineffective. Countries that conduct monetary policy using an overnight, interbank rate as an intermediate target automatically sterilize their interventions. Nonsterilized interventions can influence nominal exchange rates, but they conflict with price stability unless the underlying shocks prompting them are domestic in origin and monetary in nature. Nonsterilized interventions, however, are unnecessary since standard open-market operations can achieve the same result.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0110

Report
The implications of monetary versus bond financing of debt-peso swaps

Research Paper , Paper 9005

Working Paper
Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market

This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of intraday technical trading strategies selected using two methodologies, a genetic program and an optimized linear forecasting model. When realistic transaction costs and trading hours are taken into account, we find no evidence of excess returns to the trading rules derived with either methodology. Thus, our results are consistent with market efficiency. We do, however, find that the trading rules discover some remarkably stable patterns in the data.
Working Papers , Paper 1999-016

Report
Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective

This paper estimates and explains the impact of U.S. sterilized intervention on exchange rate volatility. We find that U.S. intervention reduced both yen/dollar and DM/dollar exchange rate volatilities during 1985-86, but increased them during 1987-89. These results make sense in a noise trading framework where the effectiveness of sterilized intervention may depend critically on the shrewdness of intervention strategies. Depending on circumstances, central banks may use noise trading channels through covert intervention, or activate signaling channels through overt intervention. The ...
Research Paper , Paper 9515

Working Paper
Real exchange rate effects of monetary disturbances under different degrees of exchange rate flexibility: an empirical analysis

Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 90-03

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