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Working Paper
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
López-Salido, J. David; Zakrajšek, Egon; Stein, Jeremy C. (2015-04-25)
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t+1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively priced, spreads subsequently widen. The timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity. Exploring the mechanism, we find that buoyant credit-market sentiment in year t-2 also forecasts a change in the composition of external finance: Net debt ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-28

Report
Expectations versus fundamentals: does the cause of banking panics matter for prudential policy?
Keister, Todd; Narasiman, Vijay (2011)
There is a longstanding debate about whether banking panics and other financial crises always have fundamental causes or are sometimes the result of self-fulfilling beliefs. Disagreement on this point would seem to present a serious obstacle to designing policies that promote financial stability. However, we show that the appropriate choice of policy is invariant to the underlying cause of banking panics in some situations. In our model, the anticipation of being bailed out in the event of a crisis distorts the incentives of financial institutions and their investors. Two policies that aim to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 519

Speech
Financial stability and the Federal Reserve: a speech at the New York State Economics Association 60th Annual Conference, Loudonville, New York, October 5, 2007
Warsh, Kevin M. (2007)
Speech , Paper 331

Speech
Money market mutual funds and financial stability
Rosengren, Eric S. (2012)
Remarks by Eric S. Rosengren, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's 2012 Financial Markets Conference, "Financial Reform: the Devil's in the Details", Stone Mountain, Georgia, April 11, 2012.
Speech , Paper 56

Working Paper
Financial Stability Implications of CBDC
Carapella, Francesca; Chang, Jin-Wook; Infante, Sebastian; Leistra, Melissa; Lubis, Arazi; Vardoulakis, Alexandros (2024-04-12)
A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is a form of digital money that is denominated in the national unit of account, constitutes a direct liability of the central bank, and can be distinguished from other central bank liabilities. We examine the positive and negative implications for financial stability of a CBDC under different design options. We base our analysis on the lessons derived from historical case studies as well as on analytical frameworks useful to characterize the mechanisms through which a CBDC can affect financial stability. We further discuss various policy tools that can ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-021

Speech
Ending too big to fail
Dudley, William (2013)
Remarks at the Global Economic Policy Forum, New York City.
Speech , Paper 123

Journal Article
What you don’t know can hurt you: keeping track of risks in the financial system
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2013-01)
The financial crisis of 2007-2008 left in its wake new responsibilities for regulators to monitor the economy for risks to financial stability. The new task of monitoring financial stability includes tracking the risks of financial instruments and learning where these risks are located within the financial marketplace. One way to do this is to track the quantities of financial instruments and which institutions hold them. In this article, Leonard Nakamura discusses some limitations of the current data and the current data framework and the extent to which we can use the Flow of Funds for ...
Business Review , Issue Q1 , Pages 21-29

Speech
Inflation, financial stability and economic growth
Poole, William (2007)
A speech at the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) Abroad in Chile Conference, Universidad Adolfo Ibanez, Santiago, Chile, March 5, 2007
Speech , Paper 113

Speech
Still more lessons from the crisis
Dudley, William (2009)
Remarks at the Foreign Policy Association Corporate Dinner, New York City
Speech , Paper 9

Speech
Defining financial stability, and some policy implications of applying the definition
Rosengren, Eric S. (2011)
Keynote remarks by Eric S. Rosengren, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, at the Stanford Finance Forum, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, June 3, 2011
Speech , Paper 46

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